ISRAEL: PM Holds Security Discussions After Hamas Announces Hostage Release
Mar-14 12:35
PM Benjamin Netanyahu is holding a security discussion with senior officials following the publication of a statement from Hamas saying that it intends to release US hostage Idan Alexander and the bodies of four other hostages. Some reports claim the exchange could come as soon as tomorrow (15 March), but I24 reports a senior Hamas official saying: "We have not yet determined the place and date of the hostages' handover." Israel has pushed for the release of eight living hostages.
- US Middle East envoy Steven Witkoff's proposal for an extended ceasefire envisaged the release of five living and 10 deceased hostages, but reports suggest that Hamas has rejected the latest overture.
- The Hamas statement also confirms that it has received a proposal from mediators to resume negotiations on a second phase ceasefire deal. It remains to be seen whether this is possible given the expiry of the first phase ceasefire deal and the inability to reach an agreement on its extension. Israeli and Hamas delegations are in Doha presently as part of the indirect talks on the first phase extension. The Israeli side has said that if no deal is reached by Saturday evening, its team will return to Israel.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Support In Gilts Remains Intact
Feb-12 12:20
- In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a bull cycle for now, despite this week’s pullback. Price has recently cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher confirms a resumption of the corrective bull cycle that started Jan 14. A continuation higher would open 133.73, 50.0% of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg and the next important resistance. Firm short-term support to watch has been defined at 131.00, the Jan 16 / 24 low. First support is at 131.85, a trendine drawn from the Jan 15 low.
- A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play for now, and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s extension has reinforced current conditions. The contract has traded through 93.09, the Dec 20 high, and breached 93.64, the 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg. Sights are on the 94.75, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm support lies at 92.63, the 20-day EMA.
EURIBOR: Mix Of Short Setting and Long Cover Seen On Tuesday
Feb-12 12:05
OI data points to a mix of short setting and long cover in Euribor futures on Tuesday, with futures selling off sharply alongside core FI amid heavy sovereign supply.
- The largest OI swing was seen in the whites (-33k), with indicative net long cover seen in M5 (-25k) and Z5 (-13k) contracts.
- The -25k OI swing in M5 almost fully unwound the +26k added on Monday (where net long setting was observed).
| 11/02/2025 | 10/02/2025 | Daily OI Change | Daily OI Change In Packs | ||
| ERH5 | 560,288 | 559,435 | +853 | Whites | -32,914 |
| ERM5 | 740,910 | 766,236 | -25,326 | Reds | +7,055 |
| ERU5 | 525,949 | 521,242 | +4,707 | Greens | -6,368 |
| ERZ5 | 598,488 | 611,636 | -13,148 | Blues | -286 |
| ERH6 | 409,772 | 408,513 | +1,259 | ||
| ERM6 | 334,184 | 333,381 | +803 | ||
| ERU6 | 274,256 | 273,602 | +654 | ||
| ERZ6 | 306,973 | 302,634 | +4,339 | ||
| ERH7 | 169,380 | 169,907 | -527 | ||
| ERM7 | 128,855 | 131,158 | -2,303 | ||
| ERU7 | 92,848 | 93,991 | -1,143 | ||
| ERZ7 | 115,890 | 118,285 | -2,395 | ||
| ERH8 | 57,708 | 58,137 | -429 | ||
| ERM8 | 44,052 | 44,130 | -78 | ||
| ERU8 | 29,278 | 29,529 | -251 | ||
| ERZ8 | 44,842 | 44,370 | +472 |
MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +2.3% SA THRU FEB 07 WK
Feb-12 12:00
- MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +2.3% SA THRU FEB 07 WK
