DENMARK: PM-DKK50B More For Defence, Message For Army Chief: "Buy Buy Buy"

Feb-19 15:36

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has said that an additional DKK50B (EUR6.7B) will be spent on defence in 2025 & 2026. Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen says that this new allocation will see Denmark's total defence spending increase above 3% of GDP. Speaking at a presser, Frederiksen says "Because of the threat from Russia, to defend Denmark and avoid war, we are embarking on further rearmament,". PM says the gov't has a message to the Chief of Defence: "Buy, buy, buy. There's only one thing that counts now, and that's speed. If we can't get the best equipment, then buy the next best."

  • Defence spending among EU and NATO countries has come to the forefront of the news cycle and fiscal calculations in recent weeks amid demands from the US that European countries 'pay their way' in defence.
  • For Denmark in particular, the issue of defence spending and capabilities has come to the fore following US President Donald Trump's frequent comments regarding the US taking control of the Danish autonomous territory of Greenland on national security grounds.  
  • Politiken writes "The government will finance the initiative through ...fiscal leeway and a relaxed fiscal policy. But it can't stay that way. Because the increase in defence spending is not temporary. This means there remains a significant task to find sustainable financing. This implies tough economic prioritization, where the three governing parties traditionally do not have common ground. But the government has postponed this battle by securing short-term financing that does not require cuts or reforms."

Historical bullets

US: Waltz Resignation Shrinks Republican House Majority Until April

Jan-20 15:34

The United States House of Representatives has gaveled in for a pro-forma session to formally accept the resignation of Representative Michael Waltz (R-FL), tapped to serve as President-elect Donald Trump's National Security Advisor.

  • Waltz's resignation is expected to be followed by the registration of Rep Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who will serve as Trump's ambassador to the United Nations.
  • The two resignations, along with the exit of former GOP Rep Matt Gaetz (R-FL), will take the House balance of power to 217 Republicans, 215 Democrats, and 3 vacancies (Waltz, Gaetz, Stefanik).
  • Special elections will be held to fill the two Florida seats on April 1st. A special election to fill Stefanik's seat will be called by New York Governor Kathy Hochul (D-NY), who may seek to delay the special election for as long as possible - feasibly until mid-May.  
  • Until the vacant seats are filled, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) cannot drop a single Republican vote in any vote on the House floor, assuming all Democrats are present and voting.
  • The fine margin is unlikely to affect Johnson's reconciliation agenda, which targets floor votes in May. However, the razor-thin margin may hand Democrats some additional leverage talks to avert a government shut and raise the debt limit in mid-March. 

BOC POLLS: CANADIANS SAW RECESSION, INFLATION AFTER TRUMP WIN

Jan-20 15:30
  • BOC POLLS: CANADIANS SAW RECESSION, INFLATION AFTER TRUMP WIN
  • CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN ELEVATED IN BOC SURVEY
  • BOC: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AIDED BY VIEW INTEREST RATES FALLING

BOC: BOC Polls: Half Of Consumers See Recession; Firms See Inflation Pressure

Jan-20 15:30
  • BOC survey showed nearly half of consumers expect a recession over the next year. Consumer surveys conducted Oct. 31 to Dec. 3.  
  • BOC says uncertainty around new US administration is prevalent among firms. 
  • In a separate Business Leaders' Pulse survey in December, 40% anticipated negative effects from the new US administration mainly due to higher input costs amid trade tensions. Impacts on selling prices were mixed with some planning to raise prices while others holding increases back to stay competitive. 
  • Business executives see higher cost pressures. Inflation expectations are unbalanced. Some 51% anticipate inflation at 2%-3% over the next two years.  Another 20% of those surveyed said they expect it to be above 3%.