CZK: PLN/CZK at 1-Year Low as Koruna Outperforms Following Strong Q2 GDP Data
CZK continues to outperform both PLN and HUF following this morning’s 2Q GDP data in Czechia, which came in ahead of expectations at +0.5% Q/Q vs. +0.2% expected. Notably, PLNCZK is around 0.4% lower on the session and at its lowest level since June last year (given that the low print on July 4 appears to be erroneous).
- Meanwhile, USDCZK remains within close proximity to July’s cycle lows, with focus on the 2021 low at 20.7191. A break here would place spot at its lowest in 7 years.
- Commenting on the GDP figures, the CNB noted that concerns that the growth in exports in 1Q would be affected by stockpiling by European exporters ahead of the introduction of US tariffs did not materialise, and that today’s data instead indicate that the broader recovery of the European economy is key.
- Focus shifts to preliminary CPI data for August due next Thursday next week (Est: +2.5% Y/Y; Prior: +2.7%), while the CNB is not scheduled to meet until September 24.
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EURIBOR: Basis trade
Euribor Basis trade:
- ERU5 4k at 98.01.
STIR FUTURES: BLOCK: Sep'25 SOFR Sale
- -10,000 SFRU5 95.835, post time bid at 0859:48ET, contract trades 95.835 last (-0.010).
AUDUSD TECHS: Clears The 20- And 50-day EMAs
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
- RES 1: 0.6538/6625 High Jul 29 / 24 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6467 @ 14:05 BST Jul 30
- SUP 1: 0.6455 Low Jul 17
- SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg
- SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16
AUDUSD has this week traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bullish theme and signals the likely start of a corrective cycle. The next support to watch lies at 0.6455 the Jul 17 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for an extension towards 0.6373, the Jun 23 low. Key resistance has been defined at 0.6625 the Jul 24 high. It also represents the bull trigger.
