AUTOMOTIVE: Pirelli (NR/BBB-[P]/BBB): 1Q25 Results Headlines
Credit neutral. * Pirelli reported revenue in-line with consensus with 5% organic growth. * Adj. EB...
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GILTS: Off Highs Around Auction, Most Of Cross-Market Outperformance Intact
The presence of this morning’s 10-Year supply seemed to limit the rally in gilts.
- Bulls were unable to breach 92.00 in futures, with the contract topping out at 91.99 ahead of the bidding deadline.
- Decent demand metrics at the auction then pushed the space back towards, but not to, session bests.
- Futures have peaked at 91.99 for now, with the contract seeing a more meaningful break above the 20-day EMA (91.81). Next resistance located at the April 8 high (92.63), although there may be some focus on April 10 low in 10-Year yields (4.616%).
- Yields 1-4bp lower across the curve, bull steepening.
- Outperformance vs. core DM peers intact (outside of U.S. 30s), with some focus on the softer elements of this morning’s labour market data (wage and payroll components).
- Dovish reaction in GBP STIRs to the data/long end rally.
- BoE-dated OIS prices just over 75bp of cuts through year-end, with 23bp of cuts discounted for next month.
- SONIA futures flat to +6.0. Last week’s highs intact across the strip.
- UK CPI data due tomorrow, with the median of the sell-side surveys that we read showing downside risks to both the BBG median and BoE expectations (our full preview is here).
- Expect macro cues to dominate between now and then.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
May-25 | 4.226 | -23.2 |
Jun-25 | 4.141 | -31.7 |
Aug-25 | 3.953 | -50.6 |
Sep-25 | 3.850 | -60.8 |
Nov-25 | 3.714 | -74.5 |
Dec-25 | 3.672 | -78.6 |
COMMODITIES: Bearish WTI Theme Intact
The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and price is trading at its recent highs. The yellow metal last week traded through $3167.8, the Apr 3 high, to resume the primary uptrend and trade to fresh all-time highs. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the rally last Wednesday is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels.
- WTI Crude down $0.04 or -0.07% at $61.46
- Natural Gas up $0.01 or +0.33% at $3.331
- Gold spot up $18.16 or +0.57% at $3228.3
- Copper down $0.85 or -0.18% at $467.5
- Silver up $0.01 or +0.02% at $32.3408
- Platinum up $6.5 or +0.68% at $959.09
EQUITIES: Bounce in Stocks Allows Oversold Condition to Unwind
A short-term reversal higher in S&P E-Minis last week highlights the start of a corrective cycle. The trend condition has been oversold following recent weakness and the move higher is allowing this set-up to unwind. Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above their recent lows. The latest bounce highlights the start of a corrective cycle and if this is correct, marks an unwinding of the recent oversold trend condition.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 285.18 pts or +0.84% at 34267.54 and the TOPIX ended 24.84 pts higher or +1% at 2513.35.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 4.854 pts or +0.15% at 3267.662 and the HANG SENG ended 48.87 pts higher or +0.23% at 21466.27.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 309.15 pts or +1.48% at 21264.04, FTSE 100 higher by 79.62 pts or +0.98% at 8213.99, CAC 40 up 35.65 pts or +0.49% at 7308.77 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 48.42 pts or +0.99% at 4959.81.
- Dow Jones mini up 27 pts or +0.07% at 40769, S&P 500 mini up 4 pts or +0.07% at 5444.5, NASDAQ mini up 42.75 pts or +0.23% at 18977.25.
