BOE: Pill when asked on whether he would vote for a 50bp cut
Feb-07 13:00
- "The clear thing I think that the committee as a whole would strongly endorse, is the committee has a clear objective or mandate that is achieving the 2% inflation target underlying domestic inflationary pressures in the UK. Those are the things that we influence by setting UK monetary policy, I think they are showing directionally the right movements. We are seeing an easing of inflationary pressures in a direction that's moving us towards the achievement of that 2% inflation target. But we are not there yet, and therefore we need to maintain some restriction in the system to ensure that that progress with this inflation towards target continues. So then.
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US TSYS: Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Put Demand
Jan-08 13:00
Pick-up in downside SOFR & Treasury puts late overnight, particularly in 10s as underlying futures extend lows, breach technical support (TYH5 107-28.5 low, 10Y yield 4.7280% high) after Trump headline re: new tariff emergency declaration made a splash this morning. In turn, projected rate cuts through mid-2025 drift near late Tuesday lows* as follows: Jan'25 at -1.2bp, Mar'25 -9.3bp (-10.2bp), May'25 -14.7bp (-14.9bp), Jun'25 -22.8bp (-23.2bp).
- SOFR Options:
- 2,500 3QG5 95.75 puts ref 95.835
- 10,000 SFRJ5 95.62/95.75/95.81/95.87 put condors ref 95.90
- 2,000 2QH5 96.00/96.25/96.50 call flys ref 95.92
- 5,000 SFRM5 96.25 calls ref 95.905
- 5,000 SFRZ5 96.00/96.12/96.18/96.31 call condors ref 96.00
- 4,650 2QH5 96.18/96.31/96.37 broken call flys ref 95.93
- 1,750 0QM5 96.50/96.87/97.12 broken call flys ref 95.99
- 2,000 SFRH5 95.00/95.75 put spds ref 95.79
- Treasury Options:
- over 3,100 TYH5 107.5/108 put spds 18 ref 107-31
- 3,000 USH5 107 puts, 27 ref 111-22
- over +30,700 TYG5 107.5 puts, 17 last ref 108-04.5
- 5,000 TYG5 109/110 call spds vs. 107.5 puts, 5 net
- Block, -10,000 TYH5 106.5/107.5 2x1 put spds, 5 net 2-legs over ref 108-06
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Mar'25 2Y/10Y Steepener
Jan-08 12:49
- Latest Block crossed at 0724:55ET:
- +2,500 TUH5 102-22.12, post time offer vs.
- -3,000 TYH5 107-30, through 107-30.5 post time bid
- The 2s10s curve has climbed to 41.621 this morning, highest since May 16, 2022
GBP: EURGBP Rally Highlights Potential for Stronger Reversal
Jan-08 12:44
- Despite the underlying dollar bid, the underperformance for UK assets has prompted a solid uptick for EURGBP on Wednesday, and a firm break above resistance at 0.8311, the 50-day EMA.
- We have reached a high of 0.8348 so far, and this represents a six-week high for the cross. Price action today undermines the dominant bear theme and highlights the potential a stronger reversal. Further weakness below the 2024 highs in cable would likely add to the topside momentum in EURGBP.
- Above here, the focus will be on 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and technical bull trigger.
