EURGBP TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 0.8728 76.4% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 14 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8713 High Sep 2  
• PRICE: 0.8674 @ 06:42 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: 0.8635/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The cross has recently cleared resistance at 0.8674, the Aug 25 and 29 high. The break signals a stronger reversal and suggests scope for climb towards 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Key support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate the recent bearish threat.

Spain, Belgium, Finland and Italy are still due to sell bills this week, while Germany and France have already come to the market. We expect issuance to be E25.3bln in first-round operations, down from E26.8bln last week.

• This morning, Spain will look to come to the market with a combined E2-3bln of the 3-month Dec 5, 2025 letras and the 9-month Jun 5, 2026 letras
• Also this morning, Belgium will look sell E3.0-3.4bln of TCs: An indicative E1.2bln of the 3-month Dec 11, 2025 TC and an indicative E2.0bln of the new 12-month Sep 10, 2026 TC.
• Finally today, Finland will look to issue up to a combined E2bln of the 8-month May 13, 2026 RFTB and the new 11-month Aug 13, 2026 RFTB.
• To conclude issuance for the week tomorrow, Italy will look to sell E9bln of the new 12-month Sep 14, 2026 BOT.

• RES 4: 5568.00 High Mar 6
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont) 
• RES 2: 5445.00/5522.00 High Aug 26 / 22
• RES 1: 5377.49 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 5353.00 @ 06:19 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: 5292.00 Low Sep 2 
• SUP 2: 5280.00 Low Aug 7  
• SUP 3: 5250.02 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 22 rally  
• SUP 4: 5166.00 Low Aug 1 and key support  

A corrective bear cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 5368.87, the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a short-term bearish threat and signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 5377.49, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would be a bullish development.