EURJPY TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 162.04/164.19 Intraday high / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 161.07@ 07:19 GMT Apr 3
- SUP 1: 160.80/12 50-day EMA / Intraday low
- SUP 2: 160.06 Low Mar 13
- SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: 158.39 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle
The trend structure in EURJPY remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective - for now. The pullback has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Pivot support is 160.80, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of the average would signal potential for a deeper retracement, towards 160.06 initially, the Mar 13 low. For bulls, clearance of 164.19, the Mar 18 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 04-Mar | 1000 | EU | Unemployment |
| 05-Mar | 745 | FR | Industrial Production |
| 05-Mar | 815 | ES | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 05-Mar | 845 | IT | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 05-Mar | 850 | FR | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 05-Mar | 855 | DE | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 05-Mar | 900 | IT | GDP (f) |
| 05-Mar | 900 | EU | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 05-Mar | 1000 | EU | PPI |
| 05-Mar | 1000 | IT | Retail Sales |
| 06-Mar | 830 | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 06-Mar | 1000 | EU | Retail Sales |
| 06-Mar | 1315 | EU | ECB Deposit /Main Refi/ Lending Rate |
| 06-Mar | 1345 | EU | ECB Press conference post Governing council meeting |
| 06-Mar | 1445 | EU | Publication of ECB Staff macroeconomic projections |
| 06-Mar | 1515 | EU | ECB Podcast: Lagarde presents latest MonPol decision |
| 06-Mar | 1515 | EU | Lagarde video message at Women's Forum event |
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 118.258 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 118.100 High Jan 2
- RES 2: 118.010 High Feb 28
- RES 1: 117.980 High Feb 3 / 5 and a reversal trigger
- PRICE: 117.730 @ 05:50 GMT Mar 4
- SUP 1: 117.340 Low Mar 3
- SUP 2: 117.240/116.870 Low Feb 24 / 19 and a S/T bear trigger
- SUP 3: 116.700 Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: 116.550 Low Jan 24
Bobl futures are trading in a volatile manner so far this week and price remains closer to last week’s highs. Key resistance to watch is 117.980, the Feb 3 / 5 high and an important hurdle for bulls. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, Monday’s low of 117.340 represents an important near-term support - a break of this level would instead highlight a bearish threat and open 116.870, the Feb 19 low.
EURUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.0677 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.0594 High Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
- PRICE: 1.0483 @ 05:57 GMT Mar 4
- SUP 1: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.0335 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - 26 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.0272 Low Feb 4
- SUP 4: 1.0233 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - 26 bull run
EURUSD traded higher Monday, starting the week on a firm note. The recovery undermines a recent bear theme and exposes 1.0529, the Feb 26 high, and more importantly, resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. A clear break of 1.0533 would highlight a stronger bullish short-term theme. This would open 1.0630, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. A key near-term support has been defined at 1.0360, the Feb 28 low. A break of it would be bearish.
