EURUSD TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 6
- RES 3: 1.0594 Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 1.0442 High Feb 5
- PRICE: 1.0437 @ 06:08 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: 1.0272/0141 Low Feb 4 / 3 and the bear trigger.,
- SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0031 2.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.9947 76.4% of the Sep 28 ‘22 - Jul 18 ’23 bull leg
A short-term bull theme in EURUSD remains intact and this week’s gains reinforces this set-up. A candle formation on Feb 3 - a hammer - continues to signal a possible reversal. The pair has pierced a key resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.0426. A clear breach of the average would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for stronger recovery and open 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. Initial firm support lies at 1.0272, the Feb 4 low.
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GBPUSD: Southbound
- RES 4: 1.2613 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 1.2607 High Dec 30
- RES 2: 1.2456/2576 20-day EMA / High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2367 High Jan 9
- PRICE: 1.2205@ 06:08 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 1.2100 Low Jan 10
- SUP 2: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair traded to a fresh trend low on Monday. Last week’s move down confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2087 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2367, the Jan 9 high.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 118.640 Low Dec 6
- RES 3: 118.520 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 117.584 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 117.090 High Jan 9
- PRICE: 116.560 @ 05:48 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 116.350 Low Jan 13
- SUP 2: 116.320 Low Jul 22 2024 (cont)
- SUP 3: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and the contract is trading just ahead of its recent low. Price has recently traded through key support at 117.180, the Nov 6 low. The clear break strengthens the current downtrend and sights are on 116.320 next, the Jul 22 2024 low (cont). Key short-term resistance is 117.584, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective and allow an oversold condition to unwind.
EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 3: 1.0513 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30
- RES 1: 1.0361 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.0244 @ 05:57 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 1.0178 Low Jan 13
- SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0122 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and recent short-term gains have proved to be a correction. Friday’s move lower resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. The pair also traded lower Monday. The break of 1.0226 confirms a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0138 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 1.0458, Dec 30 high.
