USDCAD TECHS: Pierces Key Resistance
- RES 4: 1.3462 High Jun 5
- RES 3: 1.3441 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jul 14 downleg
- RES 2: 1.3427 High Jun 7
- RES 1: 1.3387/94 High Jul 7 and a key resistance / High Aug 4
- PRICE: 1.3382 @ 07:50 BST Aug 7
- SUP 1: 1.3291/57 50- and 20-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3151/3093 Low Jul 31 / 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3032 1.764 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
USDCAD short-term conditions remain bullish following last week’s strong recovery. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 1.3291, has been cleared. The move higher signalled scope for a test of the next key resistance at 1.3387, the Jul 7 high. This level has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen bullish conditions. Key support has been defined at 1.3093, the Jul 14 low. Initial support to watch is 1.3257, the 20-day EMA.
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JGB TECHS: (U3) Fades, But Still North of Support
- RES 3: 151.26 - High Mar 3 2022
- RES 2: 149.75/150.81 - High Nov 11 / High Aug 5 2022
- RES 1: 149.21/53 High May 12 / High Mar 22
- PRICE: 147.98 @ 15:46 BST Jul 07
- SUP 1: 147.34 - Low May 26
- SUP 2: 146.11 - Low Feb 22
- SUP 3: 144.15 - Low Jan 13
JGBs continue to operate above support at 147.34, the May 26 low. The contract has breached 148.41, the May 12 high. This strengthens a bullish case and signals scope for a climb towards the next key resistance at 149.21/53, highs from May and March. Clearance of these levels would highlight an important break. To the downside, a breach of 147.34 would signal a stronger reversal and open 146.11, the Feb 22 low.
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 3: 97.040 - High Aug 03 2022 (cont)
- RES 2: 96.780/975 - High May 5 / High MAr 14
- RES 1: 96.440 - High Jun 2
- PRICE: 95.760 @ 15:44 BST Jul 07
- SUP 1: 95.685 - Low Jul 7
- SUP 2: 95.670 - Low Jun 17 2022
- SUP 3: 95.094 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Bearish conditions in Aussie 10y futures firmed with further losses early Friday as prices hit a new pullback low. This wholly erases the recent bounce and reinforces current bearish conditions. Note that moving average studies remain in bear mode, highlighting the trend direction. The recent move lower opens the Dec 29 low of 95.670 for support. A break would accelerate losses. Initial firm resistance is at 96.440, the Jun 2 high.
USDCAD TECHS: Rally Hits Reverse as NFP Short of Forecast
- RES 4: 1.3449 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 27 downleg
- RES 3: 1.3427 High Jun 7
- RES 2: 1.3401 50-dma
- RES 1: 1.3386 50.0% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 27 downleg
- PRICE: 1.3297 @ 16:16 BST Jul 7
- SUP 1: 1.3280 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3203 Low Jul 4 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 1.3117 Low Jun 27 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
The Thursday rally in USD/CAD hit reverse Friday, as a poorer-than-expected US jobs data dented the greenback. This reverses any bullish signal emanating from the break of resistance at the 20- and 50-day EMAs earlier in the week, with the pair more neutral into the end of the week. This confirms the view that the latest recovery had been corrective in nature, refocusing markets on Initial key short-term support at 1.3203, the Jul 4 low.
