SILVER TECHS: Pierces A Major Resistance Zone
* RES 4: $52.000 - Roun number resistance * RES 3: $51.405 - 4.000 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price...
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AUDUSD TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6625 High Jul 24 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6620 High Sep 9
- PRICE: 0.6609 @ 07:56 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: 0.6511 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 4: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg
AUDUSD maintains a firmer tone and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. The current bull cycle confirms the end of a corrective phase that started on Jul 24. Attention is on the key resistance and the bull trigger at 0.6625, the Jul 24 high. A breach of this level would resume the uptrend and open 0.6677, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. A clear break of it would instead highlight a stronger reversal.
STIR: 10bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through Dec
A pretty flat start for GBP STIRs, with ongoing domestic focus on the run into the late November Budget as PM Starmer reportedly assembles a “Budget Board” focused on pro-growth policies, while Chancellor Reeves has reportedly limited Cabinet colleague access to the Treasury’s emergency funds ahead of the Budget.
- BoE-dated OIS shows ~10bp of easing through year-end after printing below 8bp in recent sessions.
- SONIA futures -0.5 to +0.5.
- Little of note on the UK calendar until Friday’s monthly economic activity data.
- That will leave wider macro and developments at the fore today, with U.S. PPI data providing the key scheduled risk event.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Sep-25 | 3.976 | +0.9 |
Nov-25 | 3.919 | -4.8 |
Dec-25 | 3.868 | -9.9 |
Feb-26 | 3.756 | -21.1 |
Mar-26 | 3.712 | -25.5 |
Apr-26 | 3.636 | -33.1 |
FOREX: DXY Ticks Lower, Antipodeans Outperform
The broader USD trades on the backfoot early on Wednesday, with headlines noting that President Trump cannot fire Fed Governor Cook for cause at this stage doing little to support the USD (potential for ongoing Trump-related headline risk on that front may be lifting uncertainty and adding weight to the greenback).
- Upticks in global equity markets will also be weighing on the USD, while also helping explain the outperformance for the AUD & NZD amongst G10 FX.
- Zooming out, JPY, EUR & GBP are little changed vs. the USD on the day after recovering from Asia lows.
- EUR/USD based at 1.1690 before a recovery to 1.1710. Initial support at the 20-day EMA (1.1674) went untouched, leaving the bullish technical theme in the pair intact.
- USD/CNH threatened to test yesterday’s lows in recent trade, before a recovery to 7.1180. China’s Finance Minister stressed China’s commitment to using all its proactive fiscal policy space, along with vowing to stabilise international trade and domestic employment conditions. There wasn’t much new in the headlines given by Xinhua.
- Contained reaction in Scandi FX following this morning’s Norwegian CPI & Swedish consumption & production data (see recent bullets for more details).
- U.S. PPI data headlines today’s macro calendar, ahead of CPI data due Thursday.
