USDJPY TECHS: Pierces 50-day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3715 76.4% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 13 bear cycle    
• RES 3: 1.3620 61.8% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 13 bear cycle 
• RES 2: 1.3575 High Feb 26 
• RES 1: 1.3446 High Mar 24 
• PRICE: 1.3389 @ 17:32 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 1.3219 Low Mar 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3212 76.4% retracement of the Nov 4 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3180 Low Dec 2 ‘25
• SUP 4: 1.3125 Low Nov 26 ‘25

The trend set-up in GBPUSD remains bearish, and recent gains appear corrective. Note that resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3446, has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would undermine the bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 1.3575, the Feb 26 high. Key short-term support and the bear trigger lies at 1.3219, the Mar 13 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. 

From our latest Europe Pi positioning update (PDF): 

• German positioning has moved entirely short: Schatz and Bobl "very short" and Bund and Buxl merely "short".
• Pre-Eurex rolls, Bobl and Schatz had been long.
• The latest week saw short-setting in Schatz and Bund and long reduction in Bobl, with Buxl set apart by long-setting.

• Confirmation from Trump on the China Visit and a reciprocal visit later this year:
• @realDonaldTrump:
• "My meeting with the Highly Respected President of China, President Xi Jinping, which was originally postponed due to our Military operation in Iran, has been rescheduled, and will take place in Beijing on May 14th and 15th. First Lady Melania and I will also host President Xi and Madame Peng for a reciprocal visit in Washington, D.C., at a later date, this year. Our Representatives are finalizing preparations for these Historic Visits. I look very much forward to spending time with President Xi in what will be, I am sure, a Monumental Event. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP"