AMERICAS OIL: *PHILLIPS 66 WILMINGTON REFINERY HAS A UNPLANNED FLARE EVENT

• Treasuries look to finish mostly weaker late Tuesday - off lows as tariff headlines continued to rattle markets, curves twisting to the steepest levels in over three years (2s10s tap 55.157 high) while stocks failed to hold onto midmorning gains (SPX emins slipped below 5,000 to 4,988.0 low after marking a session high of 5305.25 at midmorning).
• Treasury futures climbing off lows after Trump officials confirmed 104% added tariff on China went into effect at noon, WH press sec Leavitt adds additional tariff to be collected starting tomorrow.
• Heavy short end buying partially swap-tied as spreads narrowed sharply, projected rate cut pricing rebounded vs. morning's levels - back to pricing in a full point by year end. Current levels vs. early morning (*) as follows: May'25 at -14bp (-8.2bp), Jun'25 at -38.2bp (-28.3bp), Jul'25 at -61.6bp (-49.1bp), Sep'25 -79.3bp (-65.7bp).
• Initial equity optimism boosting the higher beta currencies in G10, before a sharp souring of sentiment prompted a significant turnaround for the likes of AUD & NZD. Overall, the dollar index remains close to unchanged, with a lot of the focus remaining on the JPY and CHF crosses, given they remain a strong barometer for global risk sentiment.
• Focus turns to March FOMC minute release at 1400ET tomorrow, CPI Thursday. PPI Friday morning. Reminder, banks kick off the latest earnings cycle this Friday with Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo & Co, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley reporting.

• The Cleveland Fed nowcast has headline CPI at 0.01% M/M whilst its core tracker has CPI at 0.26% M/M after six consecutive months at 0.27% M/M.
• The core tracker has had some weaker months recently, overshooting by 0.04pp in Feb, a large undershoot of 0.18pp in Jan (arguably hindered by new seasonal factors and weights) and an overshoot of 0.06pps in Dec.

• RES 4: 0.6409 High Dec 9 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: 0.6389 High Apr 3               
• RES 2: 0.6283 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 0.6127/0.6219 High Apr 7 / Low Mar 31   
• PRICE: 0.6018 @ 16:32 BST Apr 8 
• SUP 1: 0.5931 1.764 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 2: 0.5900 Round number support 
• SUP 3: 0.5830 2.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.5729 2.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

The latest steep sell-off in AUDUSD cancels a recent bullish theme and instead, confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late September last year. Monday’s fresh cycle low reinforces a bear theme. A key support at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low, has been broken. This paves the way for an extension towards 0.5931 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 0.6219, the Mar 31 low.