EM ASIA CREDIT: Philippines: CB cuts rates by 25bp to 4.50%

• RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.98 - High Oct 9 
• PRICE: $63.79 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: $62.84/59.97 - Low Nov 6 / 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

Recent activity in Brent futures appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. This suggests that a corrective cycle remains intact for now. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at $64.56. Clearance of this hurdle signals scope for a stronger recovery. The next resistance to monitor is $65.98, the Oct 9 high. A clear breach of it would expose a key resistance at $69.29, the Sep 26 high. Key support lies at $59.97, Oct 20 low.

Looking into the details of the AWE data there have been slowdowns in all the single month Y/Y growth and it looks like a relatively broad slowdown in wage growth:

• Construction to 2.87%Y/Y from 3.94%Y/Y - the lowest single month print since May 2024 and the lowest 3-month print also since May 2024 (at 3.49%Y/Y).
• Manufacturing to 4.10%Y/Y from 4.66%Y/Y - lowest single month since May 2022 and lowest 3-month print since July 2022 (at 4.39%Y/Y).
• Finance and business services to 2.29%Y/Y - the lowest single month print since July 2020 and lowest 3-month print since August 2020 (at 2.74%Y/Y).
• Wholesaling, retailing and hospitality as well as the broader services sector saw the single month prints stay stable (to 1dp) but moderation in the 3-month prints.
• As noted, it was only public sector pay that saw an acceleration.

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 121.26 @ Close Nov 10
• SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level          
• SUP 2: 120.68 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 120.13 Low Oct 10 
• SUP 4: 119.48 Low Oct 7

The trend set-up in BTP futures is unchanged and remains bullish. Recent  weakness - for now - appears corrective. Note the moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. The contract is overbought, a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind.