BSP: Philippine Central Bank Could Deliver Two More Rate Cuts This Year

• RES 4: $35.728 - 0.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing 
• RES 3: $35.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: $34.789 - High Jun 2 
• PRICE: $34.108 @ 08:12 BST Jun 3 
• SUP 1: $32.790/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15 
• SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   

A strong rally in Silver on Monday confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The rally resulted in the breach of a number of important resistance points. This signals scope for an extension towards $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this level would mark an important medium-term bullish development. Key short-term support is at $31.651, the May 15 low. A clear break of this level is required to highlight a reversal.

Riksbank Executive Board hearing on 2024 Monetary Policy opening remarks here. Unsurprisingly given the topic of the hearing, the opening remarks are backward-looking in nature. More interest will be in the upcoming Q&A, where there is some scope for MonPol signals ahead of the June 18 decision.

• However, with May flash CPIF due on Thursday morning, we don't expect any Executive Board member to make any explicit forward looking remarks.
• A June cut is ~50% implied by markets, placing a lot of focus on the flash inflation release (as well as the final reading on June 13).

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 1.3947/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
• RES 1: 1.3840 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3725 @ 08:00 BST Jun 3 
• SUP 1: 1.3675 Low Jun 2      
• SUP 2: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
• SUP 3: 1.3579 1.500 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing 
• SUP 4: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing 

A downtrend in USDCAD remains intact. The pair traded lower Monday and pierced support at 1.3686, the May 26 low and bear trigger. A clear breach of this short-term support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This would open 1.3643, the Oct 9 2024 low. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 1.3947 - a key level. The 20- EMA is at 1.3840.