US HEALTHCARE: Pfizer: 3Q25 Earnings
(PFE; A2/A/NR)
#MNI #Healthcare
Lower COVID-19 sales continue to impact PFE but FY25 guidance raised after good 3Q25 results. Credit Neutral
- 3Q25 Revenues declined by 6% y/y to $16.7bn which was driven by continued declines in the COVID portfolio but partially offset by 4% operational growth across non-COVID segments. Eliquis sales were up 22% to $2.02bn (Bloomberg estimates of $1.87bn) driven by higher global demand and favorable net pricing in the US while the Vyndaqel portfolio of products were up 7% with strong demand globally.
- PFE's Paxlovid sales were down 55% y/y due to lower COVID-19 infections globally while Comirnaty (COVID vaccine) sales were down 20% due to narrower recommendations for vaccines in the US.
- Despite the revenue decline, PFE's EBITDA for 3Q25 was up 2% y/y to $7.2bn as a result of favorable sales mix (lower COVID sales) and lower royalty expense.
- PFE re-affirmed FY25 revenue guidance of $61bn-$64bn (Bloomberg estimates of $62.75bn) while also narrowing its adjusted EPS guidance to $3.00-$3.15 from $2.90-$3.10 previously. The increase in EPS guidance is due to strong results YTD, progress with ongoing cost initiatives and improvement in their effective tax rate.
- PFE generated $1.55bn of FCF during 3Q25 with no M&A or share repurchases. PFE ended the quarter with adjusted gross leverage of ~2.6x which is down from 3.0x at FYE24 and continues PFE's de-leveraging commitments after the Seagen acquisition in 2023. PFE noted they expect no share repurchases in 4Q25 and expect to continue to de-lever in order to maintain flexibility to deploy future capital.
- We expect this flexibility to be used for the Metsera acquisition and note our previous note on this situation with the recent offer from Novo Nordisk.
- https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/pfizer-metsera-acquisition-in-jeopardy-1761848046643
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USDCAD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4045 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3989 200-dma
- PRICE: 1.3953 @ 16:02 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 1.3897/3825 Low Sep 30 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and yesterday’s break above the late September’s high, firms the bullish theme. This move higher also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3825, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01
- PRICE: 0.6603 @ 16:01 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 0.6527/21 61.8% of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg / Low Sep 26
- SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6558. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6527 once again, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: September's Coupon Auctions Were Generally Solid (2/2)
September’s coupon auctions were generally solid, with three lines trading through, two coming out on the screws and two tailing slightly.
- Looking through the lens of MNI’s Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), five lines saw positive readings while two saw negative readings.
- The 3-year sale was the strongest auction of the month according to MNI’s RSI. The 3-year line traded through 0.7bps, the largest stop through in seven months. Meanwhile, the primary dealer take-up was just 8.4%, the lowest on record (data going back to 2003).
- The weakest sale of the month was the last – the 7-year line. This line saw the second consecutive 0.5bp tail, with the 12.0% primary dealer take-up above August’s 9.8% and July’s record low 4.1%.
September Auction Review:
- 2Y Note on-the-screws: 3.571% vs. 3.571% WI.
- 2Y FRN: 0.200% high margin vs. 0.195% prior
- 3Y Note trade-through: 3.485% vs. 3.492% WI.
- 5Y Note tail: 3.710% vs 3.709% WI.
- 7Y Note tail: 3.953% vs. 3.948% WI.
- 10Y Note trade-through: 4.033% vs. 4.047% WI.
- 10Y TIPS: 1.734% high yield vs. 1.985% prior
- 20Y Bond trade-through: 4.613% vs 4.615% WI.
- 30Y Bond on-the-screws: 4.651% vs. 4.651% WI.
