PERU: Petroperu Receives Approval To Expand Talara Refinery Capacity
Apr-25 12:24
- Petroperu has said in a filing that the country’s Mines and Energy regulator has approved its request to expand the operating capacity of its Talara refinery, including the incorporation of processing units and port facilities.
- The macro calendar remains light in the coming days, with the next tier-one release being April CPI inflation on May 1. Despite the decline in headline inflation to 1.28% y/y in March, the BCRP remained on hold at 4.75% earlier this month, due to the high uncertainty stemming from restrictive tariff measures. The next MPC meeting is scheduled for May 8.
- Meanwhile, the BCRP reported that non-traditional agricultural exports rose by 23.8% y/y in February to $823mn. This took YTD growth to 26.4% y/y ($2.07bn). Separately, gold production fell by 15.7% y/y in February, according to data from the mines and energy ministry, taking output to its lowest level for 13 months.
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COPPER TECHS: Price Remains Overbought, But History Shows it Can Go Further
Mar-26 12:22
- The copper price chart continues to shoot higher (printing higher highs in 11 of the past 12 sessions), with futures today again hitting a contract high of $518.85 to add additional pressure to the 2024 highs and key resistance at $519.90 - an alltime high on the COMEX-listed generic contract.
- Tariffs remain the key driver, with Bloomberg reporting overnight that US tariffs on copper imports headed to the US could be coming "within several weeks", far earlier than the likely delivery of a report into copper import practices, for which the White House allowed a 270 day turnaround. As a result, US-listed copper has outperformed London-listed copper considerably (COMEX contracts up over 30% YTD vs. 15% for LME contracts) on scarcity concerns.
- This leaves currencies and assets with a high correlation to copper prices considerably firmer on the year: CLP, COP and ZAR are higher by 8%, 7% and 3% respectively against the USD this year - and highly exposed to any subsequent tariffs-driven pullback in prices. Knowing the frequent occurrences of White House U-turns and tariff resets, this is likely already partially-baked into prices.
- While Copper prices are technically overbought - history shows the price can tolerate extended periods of stronger prices for a longer duration that the current rally. In the past 5 years there are 13 occasions of a higher RSI not subsequently followed by a material drawdown in prices.
EGB SYNDICATION: Belgium 10-year USD benchmark: Final terms
Mar-26 12:16
- Size: USD1.0bln (MNI expected USD 1.0-1.5bln)
- Maturity: 2 April 2035
- Settlement: 2 April 2025 (T+5)
- Coupon: Fixed, SA 30/360
- Final Spread set earlier: MS + 67 bps (in line with IPTs yesterday)
- Bookrunners: CITI(DM/B&D)/JPM/MS
- ISINs: RegS: BE6362168351 / 144A: BE6362169367
- Timing: Books to close at 12:30GMT / 8:30CET, today's business.
From market source / MNI colour
UK FISCAL: Spring Statement: Key Timings
Mar-26 12:14
- Chancellor Reeves will begin delivering the Spring Statement in the House of Commons immediately after Prime Ministers’ Questions concludes – so slightly after 12:30GMT / 13:30CET / 8:30ET.
- Given the limited content, the FT is reporting that the speech will only be 25 minutes long.
- The gilt remit and full OBR forecasts are normally published when the statement is finished – so around 13:00GMT (possibly slightly before or a little later). Note that in previous years with longer speeches, this has been more like 13:30.
- We would then expect the DMO to announce the consultation agenda for its FQ1 issuance (the remainder of April through to June) at 15:30GMT. This will likely include a more granular breakdown of which auctions in FQ1 are for each maturity bucket, with guidance on which gilts will be issued (see page 4 of the MNI Spring Statement Preview).
- The DMO is to hold consultations with investors and GEMMs on 31 March.
- The rest of the FQ1 (remainder of April through to June) gilt operations calendar will be published at 7:30BST on Friday 4 April.
