EM LATAM CREDIT: Petrobras Africa Expansion – Positive

• RES 4: 1.3605 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22 
• RES 2: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 1: 1.3444 High Apr 28 / 29 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.3346 @ 16:34 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 1.3257 Low May 5   
• SUP 2: 1.3245 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3041/3058 Low Apr 14 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11 

Recent weakness in GBPUSD appears corrective and the pair continues to trade inside a range with support at 1.3245, the 20-day EMA, intact.  A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, signalling a dominant underlying uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 1.3510, a Fibonacci projection. 

Silver Bulletin has published a new detailed breakdown of President Trump's polling performance, noting that the economy is now a “liability” for the administration, despite a stabilisation of his approval. 

• Silver notes: “As you can see, the issue approval pattern from Trump’s first term — when the economy was generally his strongest issue, but he was often fighting losing battles on the “culture wars” — has somewhat reversed. This time around, immigration is one of Trump’s least bad topics, although his numbers have nevertheless declined. However, the economy is a considerably bigger liability.”
• Silver adds: “Still, there’s been a slight rebound in Trump’s numbers over the past week. Might that be because he’s struck a more conciliatory tone on tariffs? The stock market has liked the change in vibes and maybe that’s improving voters’ mood, too. (We suspect that some voters may be relatively sensitive to stock prices.) That’s what this sort of data can help discern. As you can see in the chart, there’s been an uptick in his ratings on trade. And his economic approval has stabilized over the past couple of weeks.”

Figure 1: Trump Approval Rating 

Source: Silver Bulletin 

RRP usage climbs to $154.859B this afternoon from $129.858B yesterday, total number of counterparties at 46. Usage had fallen to $54.772B last Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021. Conversely, usage had surged to the highest level since December 31, 2024 on Monday, March 31: $399.167B.