COLOMBIA: Petro Expected To Appoint Key Ally As Foreign Affairs Minister
Jan-22 12:41
- President Petro is expected to appoint key ally Laura Sarabia, as the country’s next foreign affairs minister, according to reports on Bloomberg. Sarabia will replace Luis Gilberto Murillo who announced his resignation earlier this week. Before joining Petro’s campaign, Sarabia worked for former Colombia ambassador to Venezuela Armando Benedetti. Meanwhile, Interior Minister Cristo said that the government will declare a state of internal unrest but ruled out declaring an economic emergency, amid violence in the Catatumbo region near the Venezuelan border.
- After yesterday’s softer-than-expected November economic activity data, the local calendar is light for the rest of this week, as attention turns to next week’s BanRep monetary policy meeting. With activity remaining weak, analysts expect another 25bp rate cut on Jan 31, bringing the policy rate to 9.25%.
- However, recent CPI data and larger-than-expected 9.5% minimum wage hike suggest that risks are skewed today a pause, rather than a reacceleration to 50bp. Finance Minister Guevara also said recently that the central bank could pause its rate-cutting cycle in January, suggesting that the debate this month could be between another 25bp cut and no change.
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US TSYS: Extending Lows
Dec-23 12:32
Treasury futures just extended overnight lows, no obvious headline driver or block trade so far as Mar'25 10Y futures slip to 108-26 (-5), still above initial technical support at 108-16.5 (Low Dec 19). Curves inch steeper with 2s10s marking 21.963 high (+1.191).
US: Trump Taps Miran As Top Economic Advisor
Dec-23 12:29
US President-elect Trump has announced another round of executive nominations, including Stephen Miran to chair the Council of Economic Advisers – a three-member panel that advises the president on economic policy.
- Trump wrote on Truth Social: "Steve will work with the rest of my Economic Team to deliver a Great Economic Boom that lifts up all Americans".
- Bloomberg notes: “Miran, a fellow at the New York-based Manhattan Institute, co-authored a paper with economist Nouriel Roubini in July that alleged the Treasury Department had manipulated the issuance of US securities in a way that lowers real borrowing costs across the economy,” an allegation rejected by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
- Axios notes, “Miran has been critical of Fed chairman Jerome Powell as well, saying he was "wrong politically and economically" to recommend a major stimulus package in late 2020.”
- Semafor notes, “Miran has endorsed Trump’s early tariff threats as a negotiating tactic and pushed back on predictions they would cause inflation.”
- Miran said in a statement on X he looks forward “to working to help implement the President’s policy agenda to create a booming, noninflationary economy that brings prosperity to all Americans.”
- Miran's appointment will require confirmation from the Senate.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Cycle In Bunds Remains Intact
Dec-23 12:20
- In the FI space, the current trend cycle in Bund futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and the contract is trading at its recent lows. 133.98, 61.8% of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of this price point would signal scope for a move towards 133.22, the 76.4% retracement level. First key resistance to watch is 135.02, the 20-day EMA. A move above this level would signal a possible reversal.
- A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move down has resulted in a breach of key short-term support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. The break of this level highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 91.73, a 4.236 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial firm resistance is at 93.64, the Dec 17 high. Short-term gains are considered corrective.
