EM LATAM CREDIT: Peru: Exports Reached New Record in 2024
From MNI EM Macro Analyst:
{r0}{pe} Peru: Exports Reached New Record in 2024, BCRP Decision Next Week
• Peru’s Foreign Trade and Tourism Minister reported that Peruvian exports amounted to US$74.7 billion by the end of 2024, thus reaching a new historic record. The Andina article added that in the case of agricultural exports, Peruvian shipments reached US$12.8 billion, marking a 22.1% increase and a new record for the sector.
• "This new milestone in the export sector is proof of the efforts of our national business community”, Leon explained. "Besides, our export basket has benefited from the rising prices of key products such as cacao, coffee, gold, and copper," she added.
• Domestic focus ahead will be on the central bank meeting next Thursday. The BCRP will be encouraged by the latest set of inflation data in Peru, which showed annual headline CPI dip to 1.85%, keeping the door open to another 25bp rate cut in February.
• However, the explicit mention to the reference rate “approaching the level estimated as neutral”, a more hawkish Fed and prominent external risks relating to global trade may prompt a cautious hold at this juncture.
PERU 5.375% 2035, $97.29, -.04
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PIPELINE: Council of Europe Dev Bank 5Y SOFR Launched
While domestic issuers have stepped receded after the record issuance since Monday ($96.5B), foreign bank and supra sovereign US$ issuance continues:
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/08 $6B *World Bank 7Y +54
- 01/08 $1.5B #CoE Dev Bank 5Y SOFR+42
- 01/08 $Benchmark NWB 5Y SOFR+50a
- 01/08 $Benchmark IADB 5Y SOFR+42a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Ontario 5Y SOFR+58
- 01/08 $Benchmark Kommunalbanken 5Y +48
- 01/08 $Benchmark Indonesia 5Y 5.65%a, 10Y 5.95%a
GILT TECHS: (H5) Downtrend Accelerates
- RES 4: 93.09 High Dec 20
- RES 3: 92.88 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 92.13/60 High Jan 7 / 3
- RES 1: 91.58 Intraday high
- PRICE: 90.48 @ 12:01 GMT Jan 8
- SUP 1: 90.29 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 90.00 Psychological round number
- SUP 3: 89.64 2.236 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
- SUP 4: 8943 2.382 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforces current conditions. Today’s sell-off highlights an acceleration of the trend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on the 90.00 psychological handle. Initial resistance is at 91.58, today’s intraday high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 92.88, and the average is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Oil Futures Remains Intact
- On the commodity front, a bear threat in Gold remains present despite the latest recovery. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. The first firm support to watch is $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, a strong climb would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $2726.2, the Dec 12 high.
- In the oil space, the trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish and the contract has traded higher again, today. A stronger reversal to the upside has exposed key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose support at the 20-day EMA, at $71.11. This average is seen as a key short-term support.
