EGBS: Periphery Outperforms Post-U.S. CPI

Dec-11 14:40

Peripherals generally benefit from spillover following the U.S. CPI print, and related modest dovish central bank repricing/equity rally, spreads to Bunds tighten.

  • BTPs lead the move, last ~2bp tighter on the day below 107bp after threatening 110bp earlier today. Cycle lows at ~105.5bp.

Historical bullets

POLITICAL RISK: Trump's Allies Rally Around Scott For Republican Senate Leader

Nov-11 14:31

Political commentators allied with President-elect Donald Trump are rallying around Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) in the race to succeed outgoing Republican Minority Leader Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY), despite reports that Trump previously dismissed Scott privately as “not serious.” Republican senators will vote via secret ballot for their next leader on Wednesday. The result of the vote may indicate if the upper chamber is likely to continue its traditionally independent role or fall in closer alignment with Trump.

  • Scott is running against Senators John Thune (R-SD) and John Cornyn (R-TX), two more establishment figures who would offer continuity from McConnell’s leadership, particularly regarding continued support for Ukraine.
  • Axios reports: “Trump could probably decide the race if he offered a full-throated endorsement. Thune and Cornyn have pleaded privately to keep this among Senate Republicans.”
  • Conservative podcaster Benny Johnson was one of many, including Tucker Carlson and Elon Musk, to note a variation of the following: "A vote for Rick Scott is a vote to END the anti-Trump rot of Mitch McConnell in the US Senate. Thune and Cornyn are a continuation of McConnell's total failure."
  • Trump has already made a power play in the Senate by demanding the next leader commit to allowing recess appointments - a move that would significantly increase Trump's power by degrading the Senate's role in scrutinising and overseeing the confirmation of presidential nominees. Punchbowl News notes: "Scott quickly fell in line, pledging to do “whatever it takes” to get Trump’s nominees confirmed."

EQUITIES: Some focus on the Cash open

Nov-11 14:28

Some focus on the US Cash open, and although the Emini is off its new record all time high, SPX should be set for a new record high, and the same for NDX.

  • Calls: SPX: 6,022.7 (+0.5%); DJIA: 44,219 (+0.5%/+230pts); NDX: 21,206.0 (+0.4%)

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Put spread vs call spread

Nov-11 14:25

ERM5 98.00/98.50cs vs 97.50/97.25ps, sold the cs at 12.25 in 5k (unwind).