EU CONSUMER STAPLES: Pepsi; FTC files suit for rigging competition
(PEP; A1/A)
The allegation by the FTC is "Pepsi provides its favoured large, big box retailer customer with promotional payments and allowances without making these equally available to that customer’s competitors. Pepsi also provides this favoured retailer with various advertising and promotional tools, known as services and facilities, without making those benefits available to its competitors on a similar basis."
The allegation does not look far from normal business practices and will be around nuances of how Pepsi can discriminate between its customers. For example "volume discounts" or "good faith to meet a competitors price" are not grounds for discrimination lawsuit.
Equities no cares noting this, alongside recent FDA action in Tobacco, are coming as a last push from the old administration and may be more of a signalling effort than anything else. In FTC's case, hardliner and Chair Lina Khan is being replaced by a Trump appointee. The vote to take Pepsi on was 3-2 in the 5-member committee (chair is among the 5).
As we have mentioned before FTC will tilt to Trump/Republicans favour soon with his two new appointees.
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Instant Answers for December FOMC Statement and SEP
The Instant Answers questions that we have selected for the December FOMC statement and SEP are as follows - answers to be released immediately after scheduled 1400ET / 1900UK release:
- Federal Funds Rate Range Maximum
- Number of dissenters on size of rate move
- Median Projection of Fed Funds Rate at End of 2025
- Median Projection of Fed Funds Rate at End of 2026
- Median Longer Run Projection of Fed Funds Rate
- Number of 2025 dots < 3.625%
- Number of 2025 dots > 3.625%
- ON RRP Offer Rate
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 112-02 Low Oct 14
- RES 3: 111-24 38.2% retrace of the Sep 11 - Nov 15 bear leg
- RES 2: 111-04+/111-20+ 50-day EMA / High 6 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 110-17+ 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 109-25+ @ 16:52 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: 109-17 Low Dec 17
- SUP 2: 109-02+ Low Nov 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 109-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 108-28 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
A bearish short-term theme in Treasury futures remains intact despite yesterday’s bounce. 109-22, 76.4% of the Nov 15 - Dec 6 upleg, has been pierced. A continuation lower would expose 109-02+, the Nov 15 low and key support. It is still possible that the latest pullback is a correction. Initial resistance to watch is 110-17+, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight an early bullish development.
US: GOP Leadership Whips Votes For CR Ahead Of Possible Vote Today
House Republican leadership have circulated a memo to members whipping votes for a three-month spending package that will avert a government shutdown at midnight on Friday. The whip effort comes amid criticism from House conservatives over perceived extraneous spending in the package. Top Trump advisor Elon Musk has also publicly spoken against the bill in a series of statements on X.
- Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News notes that GOP leaders have highlighted Republican wins in the package and will canvass members during a conference meeting at 13:30 ET 18:30 GMT.
- Chad Pergram at Fox News reports on X: "Fox is told the House could vote later today on the interim spending bill. It could go over into tomorrow. But expect lots of complaining from conservatives if a vote comes less than 24 hours after releasing the text."
- If a vote comes today, it will likely be taken under suspension of rules, requiring a two-thirds majority of all present and voting members to pass.
- John Bresnan at Punchbowl notes: "Democrats are not formally whipping the CR vote but have sent a “question” to member offices. Overwhelming majority of Dems are yes votes. But would it be enough to get to 290 in the face [of] pretty significant Republican opposition."
- For a detailed roundup of the Continuing Resolution and potential impacts on Trump's legislative agenda in 2025, see today's edition of the MNI US Daily Brief.
