SECURITY: Pentagon Launches Review Into Scrapping AUKUS Submarine Deal
Jun-11 16:09
The Financial Times reporting that the US Department of Defense, led by Under Secretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby, "has launched a review of the 2021 Aukus submarine deal with the UK and Australia to determine if the US should scrap the project."
- FT notes: "Ending the submarine and advanced technology development pact would destroy a crucial pillar of security co-operation between the allies, at a time of heightened tension with China. The review has triggered anxiety in London and Canberra."
- Colby told the Sydney Morning Herald in August last year: “Even in the last couple of months, I would say that my views on AUKUS have become a bit more receptive. I would describe myself as maybe an AUKUS agnostic. I’m not an atheist, which is to say I’m prepared to be convinced in the existence of the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, but I have not seen the weight of compelling evidence thus far.”
- Breaking Defence reported yesterday that the UK government announced on Tuesday, "a more than $8 billion investment for two major production sites set to build and deliver “up to” 12 nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) under the trilateral AUKUS program."
- The Guardian notes that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said, following the release of a Strategic Defence Review last week, that the Aukus submarines are critical for the UK’s defence, and declaring "a landmark shift in Britain’s deterrence and defence..."
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Bear Cycle Extension
May-12 16:06
- RES 4: 112-20+ High May 1 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 112-01+ High May 2
- RES 2: 111-22 High May 7 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 111-08 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 110-10 @ 16:51 BST May 12
- SUP 1: 110-01+ 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 1 bull leg
- SUP 2: 109-08 Low Apr 24 and key support
- SUP 3: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 108-21 Low Feb 19
Treasury futures traded sharply lower Monday as the reversal that started May 1, extends. The next support to watch is 110-01+, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and expose a key support at 109-08, the Apr 24 low. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 111-22, the May 7 high. A break of this level is required to signal a potential reversal.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
May-12 16:01
- EUR/USD: May14 $1.1150-65(E1.3bln), $1.1390-10(E1.9bln); May15 $1.1000(E1.0bln), $1.1090-00(E3.2bln), $1.1385-90(E1.2bln), $1.1410(E1.0bln); May16 $1.1200(E2.4bln)
- USD/JPY: May15 Y145.00($2.0bln); May16 Y145.00-20($1.2bln)
- AUD/USD: May15 $0.6475(A$1.2bln)
- NZD/USD: May15 $0.5880(N$1.0bln)
- USD/CAD: May16 C$1.3975-85($1.2bln)
- USD/CNY: May15 Cny7.3000($1.2bln)
MNI: USDA: 2025/2026 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.82B BSL
May-12 16:00
- MNI: USDA: 2025/2026 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.82B BSL
- USDA: 2025/2026 CORN YIELD EST 181.00 BSL/ACRE
- USDA: 2025/2026 SOYBEAN PRODUCTION EST 4.34B BSL
- USDA: 2025/2026 SOYBEAN YIELD EST 52.50 BSL/ACRE
- USDA: 2025/2026 WHEAT PRODUCTION EST 1.92B BSL
- USDA: 2025/2026 WHEAT YIELD EST 51.60 BSL/ACRE
