MNI EXCLUSIVE: PBoC's Plans To Expand Its Balance Sheet In 2024

• RES 4: 1.129 1.382 proj of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 - Oct 10 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4070 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 2022 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 1.3739/3899 Intraday high / High Nov 1
• PRICE: 1.3664 @ 16:44 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 1.3661 Low Oct 24
• SUP 2: 1.3638 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3569 Low Oct 10
• SUP 4: 1.3496 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase

USDCAD traded sharply lower Thursday and extended the pullback into the Friday close. The trend outlook over the medium-term is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Price has breached support at the 20-day EMA - at 1.3739. The break signals scope for a stronger pullback and exposes the 50-day EMA, at 1.3638. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 1.3899, the Nov 1 high. A breach of this level would resume the uptrend.

• RES 4: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 0.6562 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6512 High Nov 3
• PRICE: 0.6512 @ 16:42 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 0.6315/0.6270 Low Oct 31 / 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6135 2.50 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

Short-term gains in AUDUSD are considered corrective. The pair has traded through the 50-day EMA and this strengthens the current bull cycle. A clear breach of the average would suggest scope for a stronger correction. This would expose key trend resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. On the downside, the bear trigger lies at 0.6270, the Oct 26 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

• RES 4: 162.80 1.00 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 3: 162.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 161.52 2.618 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 160.85 High Oct 31
• PRICE: 160.28 @ 16:40 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 158.93/157.96 High Oct 30 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 156.98 Low Oct 16
• SUP 3: 155.83 Low Oct 4
• SUP 4: 154.46 Oct 3 and the bear trigger

The trend outlook in EURJPY remains bullish - the recovery from Monday’s low confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and resulted in a break this week of resistance and the bull trigger at 159.92, the Oct 24 high. 161.52, a Fibonacci projection, marks the next objective. On the downside, key short-term support lies at 157.96, the 50-day EMA. A breach of this average is required to highlight a top and the start of a correction.