AMERICAS OIL: PBF Reports Planned Maintenance At Torrance, California Refinery

Barclays sit at the top end of unrounded analyst estimates we've seen for Friday's September CPI release, with core CPI seen at 0.36% M/M and headline at 0.43% M/M. As headlined in an earlier bullet, Goldman form the lower end of this unrounded estimate range with 0.25% M/M. Barclays expect similar strength through to Jan 2026 on elevated tariff pass-through. 

• “September data quality should remain unaffected since collection finished before the shutdown, but prolonged closures may affect October data collection and quality.”
• “We expect the uptick to be led entirely by core goods prices, which we forecast at +0.4% m/m amid more tariff pass-through. If realized, this would mark the highest core goods inflation print since May 2023. We estimate that core services inflation eased to 0.3% m/m, amid less shelter inflation”.
• They eye 0.31% M/M for core PCE inflation, 9bp higher than August.
• “We expect fairly stable but elevated tariff pass-through in the coming months to keep core CPI rounding to 0.4% m/m through January 2026. While tariff pressures have been slow to materialize, they are catching up with the 2018-19 experience, and about 40% of the expected tariff-related price increases have materialized thus far.” They see core CPI at 3.5% Y/Y in Dec 2025 and 2.7% Y/Y in Dec 2026.
• They continue to see a 25bp cut in October before one more in December. “The trickle of pre-shutdown data releases and private data suggest more of the same for the labor market and spending.”

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
• RES 1: 1.4080 High Oct 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3998 @ 15:47 BST Oct 22
• SUP 1: 1.3976/3900 20- and 50-day EMA values  
• SUP 2: 1.3821 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low 
• SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.3689 Low Jul 28 

USDCAD has pulled back from its recent highs. The trend condition remains bullish and a move lower is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111, the Apr 10 high, and further out, scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support lies at 1.3900, the 50-day EMA. Support at the 20-day EMA lies at 1.3976.     

Goldman Sachs are at the dovish end unrounded analyst estimates we've seen for monthly CPI inflation in Friday's September release, eyeing core CPI at 0.25% M/M after the 0.35% M/M in August and headline CPI at 0.33% M/M. We judge the median unrounded analyst estimate to be at 0.32% M/M for core CPI, with a range of 0.25-0.36%. 

• Four key component-level trends Goldman expect to see in this report:
  • “unchanged used car prices, reflecting the signal from auction prices, and a modest increase in new car prices, reflecting downward pressure on consumer prices from increased dealer incentives.”
  • “a 0.3% increase in the car insurance category based on premiums in our online dataset.”
  • “a 1.5% decline in airfares in September, reflecting a fading boost from seasonal distortions and a decline in underlying airfares based on our equity analysts’ tracking of online price data.”
  • “upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed, such as communication, household furnishings, and recreation, worth +0.07pp on core inflation.”
• “Over the subsequent few months, we expect tariffs to continue to boost monthly inflation and forecast monthly core CPI inflation of around 0.2-0.3%. Aside from tariff effects, we expect underlying trend inflation to fall further, reflecting shrinking contributions from the housing rental and labor markets.” They see core CPI at 3.1% Y/Y in Dec 2025 and core PCE at 3.0% Y/Y (or 2.2% for both excluding tariff effects).