TURKEY: Paying Down Foreign Debt Clearly a Priority

• Treasuries are getting dragged by {ge} German Govies, Bund is sold in 5k through the low, but so far still finding some support at the 2.671% mark.
• As noted on the Bund Open, and with no data for the Session, supply is at the forefront on both sides of the Pond. Netherlands, Bobl and US 3yr are due Today.
• Next support in Bund would be at 2.701% which equates to 129.43 Today.

• RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21  
• RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29 
• RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23  
• RES 1: 1.3685/3766 High Jul 7 / 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3651 @ 08:08 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

Short-term gains in USDCAD are considered corrective and bears remain in the driver’s seat. Pivot resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3766, is intact. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Sights are on key support and the bear trigger at 1.3540, Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection.

New 7-year Dec-32 EU-bond

• Size: E5bln (MNI expected E5-7bln, we still look for possible E6bln)
• Guidance: MS + 37bps area
• Coupon: Short first coupon
• Maturity: 13 December 2032
• ISIN: EU000A4ED0K0

3.75% Oct-45 EU-bond tap:

• Size: E3bln (MNI expected E3-5bln, we still look for possible E4bln)
• Guidance: MS + 97bps area
• ISIN: EU000A4EA8Y7 (immediately fungible)

For both:

• Settlement: 15 July 2025 (T+5)
• JLMs: BNP Paribas, Citi, Deutsche Bank (DM/B&D), J.P. Morgan, Nomura
• Timing: Books open, pricing later today

From market source