US TSYS: Particularly Thin Volumes Ahead of Fedspeak and Trump Deliberations
Aug-08 10:51
- Treasuries are little changed overnight although the front end is mildly lower having reversed a rally seen on Trump yesterday choosing CEA’s Miran for a temporary Fed Governor position.
- Today sees focus on a hawkish Musalem at 1020ET before continued attention on Trump ahead with his pick for new BLS commissioner still outstanding amongst other matters.
- This BLS pick will come ahead of next week’s CPI report, clearly not having a direct impact on the report but it will still hang over its release. For recent context from the MNI Policy Team, see MNI INTERVIEW: Ex-Chief Says BLS Can Withstand Trump Pressure (Aug 2) and MNI INTERVIEW: Mounting BLS Pressure Harmful For Data- Groshen (Aug 5).
- Cash yields are 1bp higher (2s) to near unchanged (7s onwards).
- TYU5 trades at 112-02+ (-00+) on particularly low cumulative volumes of 155k.
- It’s been in a range of 111-26+ to 112-15+ this week, consolidating the shunt higher on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls and less so ISM manufacturing reports. Resistance is seen at that 112-15+ after which lies 112-23 (May 1 high) whilst support is seen at 110-19+ (Jul 24 low).
- Data: None scheduled
- Fedspeak: Musalem at 1020ET – see STIR bullet
- Politics: President Trump signs Executive Orders (1200ET) and deliver remarks (1600ET).
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US TSYS: Sites on June FOMC Minutes, Projected Rate Cuts Near 50Bp by Year End
Jul-09 10:47
- Treasuries are trading firmer, inside narrow overnight ranges - setting sites on this afternoon's FOMC minutes for the June meeting - on an otherwise light data schedule: MBA Mortgage Applications at 0700ET, Wholesale Trade Sales/Inventories at 1000ET. No scheduled Fed speakers today.
- The minutes should underline the Committee's patience in making its next rate move amid heightened tariff-related economic uncertainty, as encapsulated in the meeting's Dot Plot which showed participants largely divided between no cuts and 2 cuts by year-end.
- Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures are currently +2 at 110-27, inside a narrow 5.5 tick range on modest volume (TYU5 under 285k). Futures maintain a softer short-term tone following the retracement that started Jul 1. Sights are on 110-17 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break would strengthen a bearish threat. Resistance to watch is at 111-28, the Jul 3 high.
- Projected rate cut pricing largely steady vs late Tuesday (*) levels: Jul'25 steady at -1.2bp, Sep'25 steady at -17.3bp, Oct'25 steady at -31.7bp, Dec'25 at -49.3bp (-48.6bp).
- Cross asset roundup: Bbg US$ index mildly higher (BBDXY +.84 at 1197.47), Gold softer (-7.15 at 3294.77), crude mildly higher (WTI +0.25 at 68.58), stocks mildly higher (SPX eminis +8.25 at 6280.25).
US-EU: EU on Standby for Potential Trade Announcement Tonight
Jul-09 10:44
Guardian correspondent on state of EU-US trade: "EU is on standby for an announcement tonight (or maybe not) with ambassadors meeting again this afternoon Trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic spoke to commerce secretary Howard Lutnick today and will speak to Jamieson Greer this afternoon"
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In USDJPY Still In Play
Jul-09 10:40
- In FX, the latest pullback in EURUSD appears corrective. The trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish - moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. Note too that corrections have been shallow. This also reinforces the trend condition. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb to 1.1851, the Sep 10 2021 high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 1.1646, the 20-day EMA.
- The trend set-up in GBPUSD remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. The pair has cleared support around the 20-day EMA, signalling scope for a deeper retracement towards the next key support at the 50-day EMA. at 1.3473. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.3789, the Jul 1 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, suggesting the M/T uptrend is intact.
- USDJPY maintains a firmer short-term tone. The latest recovery has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, highlighting a stronger reversal. 146.77, 76.4% of the Jun 23 - Jul 1 bear leg, has been pierced, a clear break of this level would open 148.03, the Jun 23 high. Support to watch is 145.02, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would be bearish.
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