SOUTH AFRICA: Parliament Calls Impeachment Committee Meeting For Monday

Large Expiry in the EUR Today.

Of note:

EURUSD 9.38bn at 1.1700/1.1750.

AUDUSD 1.38bn at 0.7200.

EURUSD 3.41bn at 1.1695/1.1725 (wed).

USDCNY 1.36bn at 6.8000 (wed).

USDJPY 1.38bn at 159.00 (thu).

• EURUSD: 1.1650 (1.27bn), 1.1660 (282mln), 1.1675 (394mln), 1.1680 (1.31bn), 1.1685 (282mln), 1.1700 (2.89bn), 1.1725 (1.64bn), 1.1745 (1.16bn), 1.1750 (3.69bn).
• GBPUSD: 1.3500 (756mln).
• AUDUSD: 0.7125 (1bn), 0.7200 (1.38bn).

There was a wide range of country-level increases in 3-year ahead consumer inflation expectations in March. Although the Eurozone composite measure (a weighted median of the 11 countries included) increased 0.5pp to 3.0%, 7/11 counties saw smaller increases. In particular, Germany saw an increase of 0.1pp to 2.5%, with Spain and France seeing 0.3pp rises to 3.3% and 2.3% respectively.

• Greece saw a substantial 2.3pp rise to 7.4%, but we caveat that the Greek series has been higher – and more volatile – than peers since data collection began in April 2022.
• In March 2022 (i.e. immediately after the Russia/Ukraine war started), 3-year ahead expectations also rose 0.5pp to 3.0%. However, this composite was based on a smaller sample of 6 countries instead of 11. That hampers comparability of today’s print with the equivalent four years ago.