EU CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Pandora: Rise in Silver
Oct-09 14:24
(PNDORA: Baa2/BBB)
- Silver has broken multi-decade highs, now +60% y/y at $50/oz. Gold is up 50% y/y.
- For Pandora Silver is 30% of COGS, Gold 5%.
- The group is fully hedged on Silver for 2025 (at ~$28/oz) and ~70–75% hedged for 2026 (at ~$31/oz).
- If prices hold at $50/oz we see a eventual 250bp margin headwind. This is un-mitigated impact (before price increase). It is in-line with mgmt sensitivity for a 10% increase in Silver AND Gold impacting EBIT by 70bps.
We have historically liked Pandora. We think levels are fair here with a slight skew to near term catalyst looking negative. 3Q earnings 5 Nov.
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STIR FUTURES: BLOCK: Mar'26 SOFR Sale
Sep-09 14:14
- -10,000 SFRH6 96.62, post time bid at 1010:58ET
- The Mar'26 contract trades 96.62 last (-0.030)
US TSYS: Post BLS Revision React
Sep-09 14:09
- Treasury futures gap higher then retrace - still off early lows after BLS Prelim Benchmark Revision to Establishment Survey Data comes out much lower than anticipated.
- Currently, the Dec'25 10Y trades -4.5 at 113-13 (yld 4.0665 -.0267) vs. 113-10.5 low -- Initial firm support to watch is 112-11+, the 20-day EMA.
- Curves mixed: 2s10s -0.154 at 54.988, 5s30s +1.394 at 114.346.
- US$ off lows, BBG index BBDXY currently +0.72 at 1199.27 vs. 1196.69 post data low.
US DATA: Prelim. NFP Annual Revision More Negative Than Median But Within Ranges
Sep-09 14:07
- The BLS preliminary estimate for the annual payrolls benchmark revision points to a downward revision of -911k over the twelve months up to March 2025.
- Analyst estimates were wide-ranging but we estimated a median of -750k, mainly in a range of -500k to -1mn (sometimes given as a similar range by each analyst, for example Goldman Sachs saw between -550k and -950k) but with Barclays more pessimistic still with -1.1-1.3mn.
- This compares with last year’s preliminary estimate of -818k before the -598k in the actual benchmark revision published with the January monthly payrolls report released in February.
- Taking these revisions at face value (which history suggests is likely overly negative), the average pace of monthly payrolls growth of 147k in the twelve months to Mar 2025 would have been 71k.
- As for private payrolls, the -880k preliminary downward revision implies average monthly private payrolls growth would be revised down from 122k to 49k.
- Beware extrapolating this monthly downward revision to the three-month average in seasonally adjusted payrolls growth of 29k as of August (private payrolls also 29k), but the risk is certainly on payrolls growth to have been even weaker than currently estimated.
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