FED: Pandemic Facilities Nearing Zero; QT Running At Expected $20B/Month (1/2)
May-29 20:49
Fed assets dipped slightly in the week to Wednesday May 28, per the latest H.4.1 release. The total $15.5B fall was due almost entirely to the biggest rolloff of MBS/Agency securities of the year so far, at $13.1B.
- A notable reduction in Pandemic 13-3 program takeup (down $1.4B to $7.1B, continuing to be winnowed from the peak of $177B) made up most of the rest, with no change in Treasuries/Bills.
- Over the last 4 weeks as a whole, Fed assets have fallen $36B - QT has been running at $19.8B ($3.0B Tsys, $16.8B MBS), almost exactly in line with the anticipated post-April 1 pace.
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USDCAD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
Apr-29 20:00
- RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 2: 1.4120 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3906/3972 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3849 @ 16:26 BST Apr 29
- SUP 1: 1.3781 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
The trend condition in USDCAD is unchanged, the outlook remains bearish. A fresh cycle low on Apr 21 highlights a resumption of the bear cycle and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3972, the 20-day EMA.
