INDIA: PAKISTAN-Tensions Escalate Amid Flurry Of Reciprocal Punitive Measures

Apr-24 10:52

Tensions between India and Pakistan are at their highest level in years following a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir on 22 April that killed 26 in the tourist town of Pahalgam. India, which blames Pakistan for the attack, has closed its main border crossing with Pakistan, suspended a water-sharing treaty, ordered the expulsion of military diplomats, and halted visa services to Pakistani nationals 'with immediate effect'. 

  • In retaliation, Pakistan, which denies any knowledge or involvement with the attack, has said that all trade, including to and from any third country through Pakistan, is suspended; that it will hold all bilateral agreements in abeyance; expel Indian military officials; and close Pakistani airspace to Indian airlines.
  • The suspension of agreements includes the 1972 Simla Agreement that ended the 1971 Indo-Pakistani war and committed both sides to "settle their differences by peaceful means through bilateral negotiations".
  • Indian PM Narendra Modi said earlier today, in his first public comments since the attack, that "India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers and we will pursue them to the ends of the Earth,"
  • Coming at a time of already heightened geopolitical tensions, any escalation between arguably the world's two most adversarial nuclear powers will garner significant global interest. 

Historical bullets

EQUITIES: EU Bank ratio put spread

Mar-25 10:52

SX7E (19th Dec) 155/110ps 1x2, bought for 2.8 in 6k.

GILTS: First Support In Futures Breached, Bears Now Look To Key Support

Mar-25 10:50

Early session lows in gilt futures held in the wake of the previously identified soft demand at the 4.75% Oct-43 auction.

  • However, subsequent pressure in wider core global FI markets, alongside a continued extension higher in European equities, has pushed gilt futures through first support (91.07).
  • The contract trades as low as 91.01, with bears now targeting key support at the Mar 6 low (90.71) as they look to deepen their technical control.
  • Yields are 3-4bp higher across the curve, light steepening still intact.

US TSYS: TYA Testing Another Support; Confidence, Kugler and 2Y Supply Ahead

Mar-25 10:48
  • Treasuries are again testing lows amidst a broader sell-off, with EGBs ostensibly underperforming on the day although much of that looks like catch-up for price action since yesterday’s close.
  • Today’s see consumer confidence headline various second tier data releases, permanent voter Kugler speaking for the first time since last week’s FOMC and 2Y supply after last month’s booming demand from indirects.
  • US equity futures hold onto the bulk of yesterday’s strong gains whilst crude oil futures have modestly extended gains.
  • Cash yields are 2-3bp higher on the day, whilst 2s10s at 31bp (+0.6bp) is within recent ranges.
  • TYM5 is again testing recent lows after yesterday’s clearance of 20-day EMA support, with a latest low of 110-10 (-07+) dipping through 110-12+ (Mar 6/13 lows). Volumes are reasonable at 325k.
  • A clearer break could open 110-05+ (50-day EMA) before a key 110-00 (Feb 7 high), although the trend structure remains bullish with resistance at 111-17+ (Mar 20 high).
  • Data: Philly Fed non-mfg Mar (0830ET), FHFA/S&P CoreLogic house prices Jan (0900ET), Conf. Board consumer survey Mar (1000ET), New home sales Feb (1000ET), Richmond Fed mfg Mar (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Kugler on economy (text only), Williams opening remarks (text only)
  • Coupon issuance: US Tsy $69B 2Y Note auctions - 91282CMV0 (1300ET). Last month’s 2Y auction stopped through by 1bp whilst indirect take surged to a new high of 85.5%, bouncing from 65.0% to clear the previous high of 82.1% in December.
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $70B 6W bill auction (1130ET)