INDIA: PAKISTAN-Pakistan Army Chief Warns Of 'Military Misadventure'

May-01 13:10

Wires carrying comments from the chief of the Pakistani army, General Asim Munir, saying that any "military misadventure" by India "will be met with a swift, resolute and notch-up response". Says that Pakistan "remains committed to regional peace, but is prepared to safeguard national interests." Earlier, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth posted on x saying that the US "stands in solidarity with India and support's India's right to defend itself" (see 'INDIA: Hegseth Says US Supports India's Right To Defend Itself', 1337BST). 

  • Last week's terrorist attacks in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 have seen Indo-Pakistani relations hit a multi-year low, with the two nuclear powers escalating rhetoric and actions short of outright armed conflict in recent days. India alleges the direct involvement of the Pakistani state in the attacks, accusations that Islamabad denies.
  • Yesterday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with officials from both countries, calling for them to “maintain peace and security in South Asia.”
  • Banning flights from one another's airspaces and India's cutting off of water supplies to large areas of Pakistan, have come as initial moves that observers warn could lead to a full-scale conflict. 

Historical bullets

US DATA: Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Slows On Easter Effect, Still Solid

Apr-01 13:06

Johnson Redbook Retail Sales were up 5.3% Y/Y in March month-to-date (as of the week ending March 29), after sales in the 4th week of the month slowed to 4.8% Y/Y (5.6% prior).

  • The apparent dip in retail activity at the end of the month requires some context: last year saw pre-Easter shopping, which hurts the Y/Y comparisons this year, but "these differences are expected to balance out in April as Easter sales begin, leading to improved growth rates compared to last year's retail performance in April. Most retailers recommend smoothing the Easter distortion by averaging the performance data from March and April."
  • Overall we consider this to be solid "hard" retail data, with the Johnson Redbook report covering around 80% of "official" retail sales (March data for which is out on Apr 16). 
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MNI: US REDBOOK: MAR STORE SALES +5.3% V YR AGO MO

Apr-01 12:55
  • MNI: US REDBOOK: MAR STORE SALES +5.3% V YR AGO MO
  • US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +4.8% WK ENDED MAR 29 V YR AGO WK

EQUITIES: BNP put spread

Apr-01 12:49

BNP (19th Dec) 76/60ps, sold at 6.1 in 2.5k.