INDIA: Pakistan Minister Says 'Rest Assured' Nation Will Retaliate
Further signs of escalation from Pakistan's Information Minister, who says, per BBG, that 'rest assured' the nation will retaliate. Meanwhile, India's defence ministry says it "neutralised" attempts by Pakistan to "engage" several military targets in its northern and western regions on Wednesday night and early Thursday. The statements briefly tipped USD/INR as much as 1% higher on the session. Some selected highlights from India's statement below (via Reuters):
- "Indian armed forces targeted air defence radars and systems at a number of locations in Pakistan on Thursday"
- "Indian armed forces reiterate their commitment to non-escalation, provided it is respected by the Pakistani military"
- "Sixteen innocent lives have been lost, including three women and five children, due to Pakistani firing"
- "Pakistan increased intensity of "unprovoked firing across the line of control using mortars and heavy calibre artillery"
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NORGES BANK: Fairly Balanced Commentary From Governor Bache
Norges Bank Governor Bache's speech at the Finance Norway conference here. Overall, no explicit hints that the March MPR rate path is out of date following the US tariff announcements. Although Bache emphasises the importance of employment in delivering Norges Bank's mandate, attention to higher-than-expected inflation pressures remains clear.
- "As always, Norges Bank is prepared and is closely monitoring market developments".
- Re-iterates risk assessment from March monetary policy statement: "If the policy rate is lowered prematurely, we risk seeing a continued rapid rise in prices. At the same time, we do not want to restrict the economy more than needed to bring inflation back to target".
- "If prospects suggest that economic activity weakens amid a pickup in inflation, monetary policy trade-offs may be more difficult. We must then strike a balance between bringing inflation back to the 2 percent target and keeping employment as high as possible".
- "Our interpretation of Norges Bank’s mandate is that considerable weight shall be given to employment – also at times when inflation deviates significantly from the target. Keeping employment as high as possible is also important when faced with a global trade conflict".
- "But we must respond by tightening monetary policy if there are prospects that inflation will become high".
GILT AUCTION RESULTS: Strong gilt auction - futures move 25 ticks higher
- Decent premium to the market for the lowest accepted price (LAP) at 85.526 versus pre-market mid-price of 85.491. With a solid bid-to-cover (above 3x) and tail only 0.2bp.
- The 4.375% Jul-54 gilt has moved off of its lows on the back of that - and is now trading notably above the average auction price of 85.554 (85.712 at writing).
- 10s30s hasn't really moved post-auction, the move higher is being seen further down the curve.
- Gilt futures traded to 91.92 just ahead of the results - but are now 92.17 (25 ticks higher). Albeit this only puts us back to where we were around 7 minutes ahead of the bidding window closing.
