REFINING: P66 See Strong Distillate Margins Through Year-End: Platts

• RES 4: 1.3753 High High Jul 2   
• RES 3: 1.3681 High Jul 4 
• RES 2: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
• RES 1: 1.3544/3595 High Aug 22 / 14
• PRICE: 1.3460 @ 15:54 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 1.3391 Low Aug 22  
• SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support      

A rally on Aug 22 in GBPUSD continues to signal the end of the recent corrective phase - last Friday’s reversal pattern is a bullish engulfing candle. An extension higher would open the short-term bull trigger at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low.      

• The week’s data picks up significantly from tomorrow with the second estimate for Q2 national accounts and weekly jobless claims at 0830ET.
• The national accounts release offers first revisions to real GDP growth of 3.0% annualized in Q2 having surprised stronger in the flash release (then consensus 2.6%, GDPNow 2.9%) after -0.5% in Q1.
• Bloomberg consensus looks for a small upward revision to real GDP growth with 3.1% as private consumption being revised up two tenths to 1.6%.
• Smoothing the tariff-distorted quarters out, the average of 1.2% annualized for real GDP growth in 1H25 was a clear slowdown from the 2.5% through 2024.
• Domestic demand will continue to be watched for signs of underlying economic strength after PDFP slowed to 1.2% in Q2 for its slowest quarter since 4Q22. Similarly, the 1.6% in 1H25 followed 3.0% through 2024. Residential investment was a sizeable drag here with a -0.2pp contribution to GDP growth as the housing market remained under pressure.
• Core PCE inflation revisions for Q2 can also give hints as to what to expect in Friday’s monthly release for July (specifically for revisions to Q2 months of course, whilst we have seen unrounded core PCE estimates average 0.28% M/M for July). The median analyst looks for a very small upward revision to a rounded 2.6% from a starting point of 2.54% annualized, although currently only has 10 responses. 

RRP usage rebounds to $34.744B with 21 counterparties this afternoon, from $28.574B yesterday. Compares to $22.344B on Tuesday, Aug 19 - lowest since April 5, 2021 vs. this year's high usage of $460.731B on June 30.