TWD: Outperformance Continues, Equity Inflow Momentum Elevated

US equities momentum stalled heading into the weekend. This morning US futures opened a little higher, ESU5 +0.15%, NQU5 +0.30%. The JPY crosses look to regain momentum higher, led by GBP/JPY & EUR/JPY. 

• EUR/JPY - Friday night range 171.52 - 172.38, Asia is trading around 172.55. This pair found good demand back towards 171.00 at the end of last week and after putting in a higher low is looking to regain momentum to challenge the year's highs.
• GBP/JPY - Friday night 198.92 - 199.69, Asia trades around 199.95. This pair found demand back towards 199.00 to end the week and is looking at testing the highs above 200 again. A sustained move back above 200.00 is needed to generate fresh impetus higher.
• NZD/JPY - Friday night range 86.99 - 87.29, Asia is currently dealing 87.45. The pair found solid demand towards the 87.00 area, price looks comfortable back in the middle of its 96.50-99.00 range
• CNH/JPY - Friday night range 20.4297 - 20.4947, Asia is currently trading around 20.5200. This pair continues to find solid demand back towards its pivotal support between 20.30/20.40. A sustained break back below 2.3000 is needed to turn momentum lower again, until then its looks comfortable in a 20.4000-20.8000 range.

Fig 1 : GBP/JPY Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

US President Trump has posted on Truth Social that Ukraine President Zelenskyy can end the war with Russia now if he wants to. The full post is re-printed below. This comes ahead of President Trump's meeting with Zelenskyy later today, while some key EU leaders will also be in attendance. Recent Trump/Putin talks will be discussed. Russia is apparently offering to hold its frontlines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in exchange for the Donbas. US special envoy Witkoff said that the US/European security guarantee could “effectively offer Article-5 like language” (NATO), as reported by the BBC. Ukraine has to hold a referendum though to agree to changes to its territory. 

• Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump, "President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!." 

The USD/CNY fix printed at 7.1322, versus a Bloomberg market consensus of 7.1812.

• This is a fresh YTD low for the fixing and continues the recent downtrend in the fixing outcome. The fixing error was little changed at -490pips.
• USD/CNH is down a little so far today, last near 7.1865, with the majors displaying a modest risk on trend, with JPY and CHF underperforming, while AUD and NZD rise modestly.