GOLD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $4161.4/4381.5 - High Oct 22 / High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4046.2 - High Oct 31                 
• PRICE: $3992.1 @ 07:23 GMT Nov 4 
• SUP 1: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28  
• SUP 2: $3864.7 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3751.3 - 50.0% retracement of the May 15 - Oct 20 bull leg

Gold is unchanged. A fresh cycle low last week highlights an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 20. The retracement since Oct 20 has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3864.7. Clearance of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.

• RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.98 - High Oct 9 
• PRICE: $64.60 @ 07:05 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: $63.37/59.97 - Low Oct 24 / 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A short-term corrective bull cycle in Brent futures appears intact for now and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at $64.72. Clearance of this hurdle signals scope for a stronger recovery. The next hurdle to monitor is  $65.98, the Oct 9 high. A clear breach of this level would expose a key resistance at $69.29, the Sep 26 high. Key support and the bear trigger lies at $59.97, the Oct 20 low.

There have been several drivers of the weakness in equities seen ahead of and through early London trade:

• U.S. tech name Palantir lost nearly 5% after hours, despite a firm earnings report, with analysts pointing to extreme valuations and the scale of the recent rally in the name as areas of concern.
• SK Hynix (a memory supplier to Nvidia) shares fell in Korea, following an unusual warning of “investment caution” from the Korea Exchange after the name rallied by over 200% in a 6-month period
• Comments from China warning the Netherlands to stop interfering in company affairs and urging the county to find a solution for the Nexperia issue (the Netherlands seized Nexperia, a unit of China's Wingtech). China stressed that it will firmly safeguard the rights of the company.
• The move then extended as e-minis broke below yesterday’s lows, with the S&P 500 contract closing the opening gap higher that was seen at the start of last week. Support in the S&P 500 e-mini comes in at the 20- (6,804.03) & 50- (6,698.11) day EMAs. The trend structure in the contract remains bullish.
• The NASDAQ e-mini leads the way lower across the 3 major contracts, last -1.35%.
• The move in equities has provided support to Tsy and Bund futures.
• It has also provided further tailwinds for the JPY. The yen was already benefitting from the Japanese Finance Minister pointing to one-sided, rapid moves in the JPY, while noting a high sense of urgency when it comes to monitoring the recent FX moves (not signalling imminent intervention, but leaning against further JPY declines). The JPY outperforms all G10 FX peers. Initial support in USD/JPY comes in at 153.27, followed by 152.06. The technical trend structure in the pair remains bullish at this stage.
• Crypto also lower against this backdrop, suffering from dented risk sentiment.