ASIA STOCKS: Outflows Resume Across the Region
Apr-15 00:52
Constant outflows continue to be the thematic we see as we watch the equity flows across the major markets.
- South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$188m as of yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$1,584m. 2025 to date flows are -$11,666m. The 5-day average is -$317m, the 20-day average is -$323m and the 100-day average of -$152m.
- Taiwan: Had outflows of -$642m as of yesterday, with total outflows of -$1,402m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$18,358. The 5-day average is --$280m, the 20-day average of -$247m and the 100-day average of -$249m.
- India: Had outflows of -$518m as of the 9th, with total outflows of -$2,815m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative -$16,476m. The 5-day average is -$563m, the 20-day average of -$44m and the 100-day average of -$150m.
- Indonesia: Had outflows of -$138m as of yesterday, with total outflows of -$488m over the prior five days. YTD flows are negative -$2,318m. The 5-day average is -$98m, the 20-day average -$50m and the 100-day average -$37m
- Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$34m as of the 11th, outflows totaling -$250m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1,396m. The 5-day average is -$50m, the 20-day average of -$25m the 100-day average of -$18m.
- Malaysia: Recorded outflows of -$18m as of yesterday, totaling -$222m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,796m. The 5-day average is -$44m, the 20-day average of -$60m the 100-day average of -$40m.
- Philippines: Saw inflows of +$3m as of yesterday, with net outflows of -$62m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$290m. The 5-day average is -$12m, the 20-day average of -$3m the 100-day average of -$6m.
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FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
Mar-14 21:28
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Mar-14 21:25
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
Mar-14 21:17
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
