THAILAND: Ousted PM Paetongtarn Says Court Verdict Will Bring Political Change
Speaking from the Government House, ousted Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra told reporters that she respects the Constitutional Court's verdict removing her from office and that it would bring political change in Thailand. In what is effectively a farewell address, she reiterated that she was acting 'for the benefit of the country' and her phone call with Cambodia's de facto leader Hun Sen was intended to prevent further deaths among soldiers and civilians amid a border row.
- Earlier today, the Constitutional Court deemed Paetongtarn guilty of violating ethics and integrity standards and ordered her to vacate her office. She became the fifth Thai Prime Minister removed through judicial intervention in what represents a severe blow to her ruling Pheu Thai Party (PTP), reducing its bargaining power ahead of a tumultuous period in politics. Unlike in previous instances, the PTP probably cannot count on widespread protests in its support after its approval ratings tanked on the back of Paetongtarn's phone call with Hun Sen.
- The guilty verdict is obliging for all state agencies and potentially exposes Paetongtarn to further criminal consequences amid a parallel probe by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC). Separately, her father and PTP patriarch Thaksin Shinawatra is due to hear a verdict on the so-called '4th floor case' on September 9. This means that lawfare against the Shinawatras is far from over and the powerful political clan is still facing significant risks.
- Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai and the Cabinet will now serve in caretaker capacity until the selection of the new Prime Minister by parliament. The process has no formal deadline and lawmakers must choose from between prime ministerial candidates submitted before the most recent parliamentary election. The PTP had signalled that it would propose that its only remaining candidate, Chaikasem Nitisiri, a relatively low-profile politician, is appointed Prime Minister.
- Local media outlets took note of yesterday's meeting between Palang Pracharath Party's (PPRP's) Prawit Wongsuwan and Bhumjaithai Party's (BJT's) Anutin Charnvirakul. They reportedly struck a deal to support Anutin's PM bid for a six-month interim period, should Paetongtarn be ousted. Separately, the pro-democracy People's Party (PP), which controls a plurality of seats in parliament, said it would like to nominate a PM candidate who would dissolve parliament upon taking office.
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US TSY FUTURES: Net Long Setting Dominated During Tuesday's Rally
OI data points to net long setting dominating across much of the curve on Tuesday, only interrupted by a modest round of net short cover in FV futures.
- A net $12.6mln of DV01 equivalent was added across the curve, with TY futures seeing the biggest positioning move, likely aided by feedthrough from strong demand at the 7-Year auction.
| 29-Jul-25 | 28-Jul-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,420,880 | 4,382,663 | +38,217 | +1,413,708 |
FV | 6,937,480 | 6,956,801 | -19,321 | -825,227 |
TY | 4,936,861 | 4,842,034 | +94,827 | +6,235,175 |
UXY | 2,417,573 | 2,412,794 | +4,779 | +416,224 |
US | 1,789,873 | 1,777,293 | +12,580 | +1,747,295 |
WN | 1,951,782 | 1,931,653 | +20,129 | +3,638,690 |
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| Total | +151,211 | +12,625,865 |
DUTCH T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
The Netherlands has announced it will be looking to sell the following next Monday, August 4:
- E0.5-1.5bln of the 4-month Nov 27, 2025 DTC
- E1.0-2.0bln of the new 6-month Jan 29, 2026 DTC
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- In the equity space, the trend set-up S&P E-Minis remains bullish. Recent cycle highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 6477.31, 1.618 projection of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6322.32.
- The trend condition in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and short-term weakness appears corrective. Support at 5281.00, the Jul 1 / 4 low, remains intact. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, a resumption of gains and a clear break of 5486.00, the May 20 high, would resume the bull cycle and open 5500.00.
