HUNGARY: Our Thoughts on the Orban Presidency Piece

• RES 4: 114-02   High Oct 17 and the bull trigger 
• RES 3: 113-29   High Oct 22
• RES 2: 113-18+ High Oct 28 
• RES 1: 113-02   High Nov 5& 7 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-21+ @ 11:10 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 112-09+ Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 112-08+ 38.2% retracement of May - Oct Upleg
• SUP 3: 112-08/06 100-dma / Low Sep 25 and a reversal trigger 
• SUP 4: 112-02   Trendline support drawn from the May 22 low 

A short-term bear theme in Treasuries remains in place. Attention is on a reversal trigger at 112-06, the Sep 25 low, and the 100-DMA, at 112-08. A clear break of these price points would expose a trendline support at 112-02. The trendline is drawn from the May 22 low. Resistance to watch is 113-02, the Nov 5 and 7 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a potential bullish reversal.

Pricing plans within the NFIB survey for October were softer than in September but hold at a level that points to median PCE inflation remaining stubbornly above the 2% target. Elsewhere in the survey, weaker profit trends drove an admittedly small decline in optimism, with the largest attributing factor from weaker sales followed by the cost of materials. 

• The NFIB small business survey for October saw its optimism index broadly as expected at 98.2 (Bloomberg consensus 98.3) for a mild dip from 98.5 in September.
• “Optimism among small businesses declined slightly in October as owners report lower sales and reduced profits. Additionally, many firms are still navigating a labor shortage and want to hire but are having difficulty doing so, with labor quality being the top issue for Main Street.”
• As usual, our focus here is on the non-labor side of the survey with its jobs report already published, with particular attention on pricing plans which this month were a little softer than in September.
• A net 21% of firms raised their average selling prices compared to three months ago, back to a joint low since Aug 2024 having increased to 24% in September. This series has seen a recent high of 32% in February although it remains above the ~12% seen in immediate years ahead of the pandemic.
• A net 30% of firms plan to increase average selling prices over the next three months, down marginally from the 31% in September. It saw a recent high of 32% in June (down from the 50s in late 2021/early 2022 for comparison) but remains above the ~22% pre-pandemic average.
• Back to optimism more broadly, “The frequency of reports of positive profit trends fell 9 points from September to a net negative 25% (seasonally adjusted). This component contributed the greatest to the decline in the Optimism Index. Among owners reporting lower profits, 33% blamed weaker sales, 16% cited the rise in the cost of materials, 9% cited price change for their product(s) or service(s), and 9% cited labor costs.”