EMISSIONS: OTC Physical EUAs, UKAs Volume Rise M/M
Jul-18 14:09
{EULEBA OTC physically delivered EUAs volumes in June 2025 were at 182Mt, up 27% m/m but down 3.2% y/y. Meanwhile, UKA volumes were at 26.3Mt, up 12% m/m and 123% y/y.
- The year-to-date total for EUAs stood at 1,005.8Mt, down 31.9% from 1,476Mt in the same period last year.
- UKAs YTD volume stood 118.7Mt, up 27.8% from 92.9Mt in the same period last year.
- Combined EU-UK ETS activity in June was 208Mt, up 25% m/m and 4.3% y/y decline.
- The latest Germany ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €69.68/ton CO2e
- The mean and median market forecasts for EUAs spot price in 2025 Q3 are at €73.83/t and €73.00/t, above the latest auction price.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.16% at 70.44 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 down 2.41% at 49.75 GBP/t CO2e
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IRAN: Trump Says Iran Suggested a White House Visit
Jun-18 14:05
"*TRUMP: IRAN SUGGESTED THEY COME TO THE WHITE HOUSE" - Reuters
FOREX: Sterling Consolidating Bulk of Recent Weakness
Jun-18 14:03
- GBPUSD had a notable 1.1% move lower on Tuesday amid the renewed dollar strength and global concerns regarding the Israel-Iran conflict. While the pair is unchanged on today’s session, the consolidation strengthens the short-term bearish momentum as we approach both the FOMC and BOE decisions over the next 24 hours.
- The move was likely exacerbated by a breach of the 20-day exponential moving average. The daily close below this average was the first since May 12 and subsequent weakness below 1.3456 (Jun 10 low) emphasises some renewed pessimism for sterling. The next important support lies at 1.3350, the 50-day EMA.
- For EURGBP, a bullish theme remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions, bolstering the likelihood of a climb towards 0.8592, a Fibonacci retracement. A higher close today would extend the pair’s winning streak to eight sessions, the joint longest streak since May 2019. Further out, 0.8624 will garner attention, the April 21 high.
- HSBC have noted that Wednesday’s UK CPI data do not shift the needle on the main drivers for GBP and believe that deteriorating UK data such as a cooling UK labour market and recent disappointing monthly GDP have been behind EURGBP’s outperformance. We also highlighted that JP Morgan have maintained a bearish GBP stance and continue to run an active short GBP vs NOK, SEK basket expression.
US: Trump Seemingly Still Yet to Make Decision on Iran
Jun-18 14:02
"*TRUMP ASKED ABOUT POSSIBLE IRAN STRIKES: I MAY, I MAY NOT" - bbg
