PORTUGAL AUCTION RESULTS: OT Results
Sep-10 09:37
--------------------------------------------------- 3.00% Jun-35 OT 1.15% Apr-42 ...
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GERMAN T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 11-Month Bubill
Aug-11 09:33
| Type | 11-month Bubill |
| Maturity | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Allotted | E1.31bln |
| Previous | E0.9837bln |
| Total sold | E1.5bln |
| Target | E1.5bln |
| Avg yield | 1.891% |
| Previous | 1.758% |
| Bid-to-cover | 4.31x |
| Previous | 2.64x |
| Bid-to-offer | 3.77x |
| Previous | 2.6x |
| Previous date | Jul 07, 2025 |
FOREX: Rally in EUR/NOK Capped by CPI, Schedule Quiet
Aug-11 09:31
- Early strength in EUR/USD has faded, with the pair now flat headed through to the NY crossover. Nonetheless, price remains within range of the new recovery high posted on Thursday. This keeps the recovery off the late July pullback low intact, working against the bearish backdrop that’s dominated the pullback from 1.1829. This week's schedule is light - leaving the USD the likely more active leg of the price this week.
- The rally in EUR/NOK may be capped by the Norwegian CPI print this morning, which saw Y/Y CPI surge to 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.0% - with underlying CPI also tilted higher. A corrective pullback in the price would first target 11.9326, the 23.6% retracement for the upleg off the late July high. NOK is now the strongest performing currency in G10.
- GBP is making further progress today: GBP/USD is through the Friday high and clear of 1.3450. This narrows the gap with the notable 50-dma at 1.3503 - clearance above which could signal a stronger upside reversal toward the cycle high printed at the beginning of July.
- Notably, jobs and wages data due tomorrow morning are the next hurdle here. MPC policymakers clearly remain concerned over perky wages and the feedthrough to prices: consensus looks for weekly earnings ex-bonus to hold at 5.0% this week - still considerably north of the pre-COVID norms.
- Focus today rests on speculation and expectations for the Trump-Putin meeting scheduled for later this week. Ahead of the meeting in Alaska, reports this weekend suggested that Moscow and Washington are working toward a deal to progress with a ceasefire in exchange for a freezing of territorial gains - an agreement that will likely receive heavy criticism among European leaders, and the Ukrainian President himself.
- There remain questions over whether Zelenskyy himself could attend the meeting in some capacity - but regardless of the outcomes this week, the meeting represents a significant thawing in tensions between Russia and the West.
EGBS: Early Rally Fades, Volumes Light
Aug-11 09:23
- The early rally in Bund futures has faded, leaving RXU5 +5 ticks at 129.78. Volumes are light, with no regional data released this morning and weekend news around US-Russia talks having little net impact. While the contract moved back below the 130.00 handle of Friday, the bear trigger and notable support at 128.84 (July 25 low) was not tested.
- German yields are up to 1bp lower across the curve. The 10-year yield is at 2.68%, with the 2.70% handle the initial focus if upside momentum takes hold once again. This level held on Friday.
- A reminder that this week’s EGB net cash flow backdrop is favourable, with estimated net supply for the week strongly negative at negative E43.8bln, versus positive E23.5bln last week. Finland holds an auction tomorrow, with Germany selling 10-year Bunds on Wednesday.
- 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are little changed. The BTP/Bund spread is attempting to consolidate below the 80bp handle, with a pullback in EUR vol metrics an important driver of narrowing since tariff uncertainty peaked in April.
- Today’s US data calendar is also light, leaving any major market moves likely to be dictated by headline flow.
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