EU CREDIT HEADLINE: Orsted

• MNI: US JULY FINAL SERVICES PMI 55.7 (55.2 FLASH, 52.9 JUNE)

The House Republican Study Committee will host GOP staff on Wednesday for a discussion on crafting a second megabill, according to an invite seen by Politico. 

• Politico notes: “The briefing will be held in-person, and aides will hear from leaders of the Economic Policy Innovation Center, a conservative think tank, including executive vice president Brittany Madni, director of budget policy Matthew Dickerson and senior analyst in fiscal policy David Ditch.”
• RSC Chairman August Pfluger (R-TX), told Fox News last month: "We must capitalize on the momentum we’ve generated in the first 6 months of a Republican trifecta in Washington. To fulfill the promises we made to the American people, conservatives must begin laying the groundwork for the second reconciliation bill to ensure we continue to drive down the cost of living and restore America’s promise for future generations."
• House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said last month: "...the big beautiful bill was the first big step in that. But we have multiple steps ahead of us. We have long planned for at least two, possibly three, reconciliation bills, one in the fall and one next spring."
• A maximum of three reconciliation bills are permitted per fiscal year, per Senate rules. Considering the likelihood of Democrats winning the House in the 2026 midterms, Republicans are likely to pursue one additional reconciliation package on a similar timeline to the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill'. 

July's full-month retail sales came in at 5.4% Y/Y per the Johnson Redbook retail sales index, following a  6.5% Y/Y rise in the final week of the retail month (to Aug 2). 

• While more details will be available on Wednesday after the same-store sales index is released, it appears as though July continued a string of robust Redbook sales (6 months consecutive, and 11 in 12, above 5% Y/Y).
• Additionally, Redbook's preliminary forecast for August is for 5.8% Y/Y sales.
• Current estimates for Jul Census Bureau retail sales (out Aug 15) is for 0.5% M/M gains after 0.6% in June, which would put Y/Y sales in the high 3% Y/Y area.
• The Redbook report's anecdotals point to promotions and sales tax holidays as having boosted late July sales: "shoppers took advantage of annual sales tax holidays for school supplies and clothing in Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. Retailers also provided a variety of promotions, both in stores and online. Meanwhile, some major retailers are facing a nationwide boycott organized by People’s Union USA, which began on August 1st and will continue throughout the month."