HUNGARY: Orban to Meet Trump and Discuss “Economic Package” Soon
- Prime Minister Viktor Orban says he will meet US President Donald Trump “soon,” and that the agenda will include an “economic package.” One of the main issues to be discussed is a bilateral tax treaty between the US and Hungary, as well US investment projects into Hungary, Orban said in an interview with news site Mandiner.
- "We have fixed political ties with the US," Orban said, adding that US companies have launched eight major investment projects in Hungary in 2025, while "another three or four will come [...] despite America going home right now; we are working on an economic package."
- The National Bank of Hungary has filed a criminal complaint on suspicion of embezzlement, negligence, fraud, and abuse of office in connection with the renovation of its headquarters in Budapest, the NBH told MTI.
- No major data releases are scheduled for today. Average gross wage data for August is due tomorrow morning (Est: +8.9% Y/Y; Prior: +8.9%).
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NORWAY: Statistics Norway Only Expects One More Norges Bank Cut This Year
Statistics Norway has revised up its Norges Bank terminal rate forecast to 3.50%, from 3.25% in the June projection round. Stats Norway’s head of research notes that “A marked upturn in the Norwegian economy and surprisingly high wage growth mean that we only expect one further interest rate cut this year and two more next year. This will bring the key rate down to 3.5 per cent towards the end of 2026”
- The Norges Bank decision, which includes an updated MPR and set of forecasts, is due on Thursday. It’s set to be a close call, but we currently lean against consensus in favour of a hold at 4.25%. Full preview here
- Statistics Norway writes that “Household purchasing power has increased and income growth will continue for the next years. In addition, the state has gained greater purchasing power because of the enormous increase in the petroleum fund, which provides scope for a continued expansionary fiscal policy in the near term”
- Additionally, it highlights that wage growth has been “surprisingly high” in 2025. The 2025 full-year wage growth projection has thus been revised up to 4.9% (well above Norges Bank’s 4.5% forecast).
- Stats Norway plays down the recent rise in the LFS unemployment rate, emphasising that this has been driven by labour force increases.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6700 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- PRICE: 0.6666 @ 07:57 BST Sep 16
- SUP 1: 0.6568/6531 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 4: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg
AUDUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest rally plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The climb opens the 0.6700 handle next. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. Initial firm support to monitor lies at 0.6531, the 50-day EMA.
GILTS: Opening Calls
Gilt calls, 91.45/91.46.
