HUNGARY: Orban Says He Spoke With Trump, Peace Summit Preparations Underway

Oct-17 07:09
  • Following the telephone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday, Trump announced that the two leaders would meet in Budapest: “President Putin and I will then meet in an agreed upon location, Budapest, Hungary, to see if we can bring this “inglorious” War, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end. President Zelenskyy and I will be meeting tomorrow, in the Oval Office, where we will discuss my conversation with President Putin, and much more.”
  • Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he plans to call Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday as he starts preparations to host a US-Russia summit in Budapest. Orban, citing a call with Trump late on Thursday, said US and Russian foreign ministers will try to resolve remaining matters within a week.
  • Separately, average gross wages for businesses with at least 5 employees rose 8.7% y/y in August (Est: +8.9%) versus +8.9% in July. On a monthly basis, average gross wages fell 1.6% m/m compared to a prior -1.6%.

Historical bullets

GILTS: Opening calls

Sep-17 06:57
  • Gilt calls, 91.45/91.50. 

These DO NOT take the CPI into account, given that Sonia is a tick up, small upside risk, but should be close.

USDCAD TECHS: Strong Sell-Off Exposes Support

Sep-17 06:57
  • RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
  • RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 1.3890 High Sep 11
  • RES 1: 1.3803 20-day EMA 
  • PRICE: 1.3751 @ 07:56 BST Sep 17
  • SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger  
  • SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
  • SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle 
  • SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

A sharp sell-off in USDCAD this week has resulted in a break of the 20-and-50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bullish theme and a continuation lower would expose key short-term support at 1.3727, the Aug 27 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, resistance levels to watch are; 1.3890, the Sep 11 high, and 1.3925, the Aug 22 high and bull trigger.

US TSY OPTIONS: TYX5 112.50 Puts Lifted

Sep-17 06:54

TYX5 112.50 puts paper paid 0-21 on 4K.