HUNGARY: Orban Affirms Stance Against Joint EU Issuance
* In a routine radio appearance, PM Orban ruled out the prospect of joint European Union borrowing...
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STIR: ECB Implied Rates In Holding Pattern Until Fresh Catalyst Arises
There wasn’t a material reaction in short-end EUR rates to the latest Bloomberg source reporting on the progress of EU-US trade negotiations, nor the US-China trade framework agreed upon overnight. ECB-dated OIS continue to price one more 25bp cut through year-end. Given the cautious signals from President Lagarde’s press conference last week, alongside subsequent Governing Council commentary, implied rates appear to be stuck in a holding pattern until a new catalyst arises. Trade negotiations are the obvious risk to monitor, alongside hard data that covers the period beyond US Liberation Day.
- Euribor futures are little changed through the blues.
- The BBG story said the EU believes trade negotiations could extend beyond the July 9 deadline, with US responses to the latest round expected in the coming days. Notably, sources said that talks remain difficult, and the EU continues to prepare retaliatory measures in case no agreement is reached.
- Today’s regional calendar includes the ECB’s forward-looking wage tracker. It should confirm a downward trend in pay growth, and is unlikely to be a major market mover. At the June press conference, President Lagarde said that "the ECB’s wage tracker points to a further easing of negotiated wage growth in 2025, while the staff projections see wage growth falling to below 3 per cent in 2026 and 2027". The April vintage saw negotiated wages excluding one-off payments falling to 3.024% by Q4 2024.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Cut Adjusted Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jul-25 | 1.895 | -2.9 |
| Sep-25 | 1.778 | -14.6 |
| Oct-25 | 1.742 | -18.2 |
| Dec-25 | 1.669 | -25.5 |
| Feb-26 | 1.657 | -26.8 |
| Mar-26 | 1.647 | -27.7 |
| Apr-26 | 1.655 | -26.9 |
| Jun-26 | 1.665 | -25.9 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
SILVER TECHS: Impulsive Bull Wave Intact
- RES 4: $37.478 - High Mar 2012
- RES 3: $37.195 - 2.236 proj of the May 15 - 22 high / low price swing
- RES 2: $36.987 - 1.000 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing
- RES 1: $36.886 - High Jun 9
- PRICE: $36.546 @ 08:05 BST Jun 11
- SUP 1: $33.967 - Low Jun 3
- SUP 2: $33.416/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
- SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
An impulsive bull wave in Silver remains in play and last week’s strong gains plus Monday’s extension, reinforce this condition. Last Thursday’s rally resulted in a move above $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The clear break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on $36.987 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $33.967, the Jun 3 low.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Looking for more near Terms Cuts
- ERU5 98.87c, is again bought for 0.25 in 4k Today, this has been bought in 20k Total since Yesterday.
- It is now 0.25 bid, this Option covers the next two ECB meetings, expiry is on the 15th Sep, looking for more near term cuts.
- Next ECB meetings are on the 24th July and 11th Sept.
