GILTS: Opening calls

Gilt calls, a wide range, 91.03/91.84.

• Note that Bund continues to recover after it fell 115 ticks on the cash Govie Open.

Attention will again be on the EU Cash Open, following the White House pressing on with Tariffs and escalated the War against China.

While the Risk is Off, the Estoxx futures (VGM5) hasn't quite managed to break this Week's low of 4444.00, Today's low is at 4476.00.

• Calls: Estox 50: -3.18%, Dax: -3.11%, CAC: -3.48%, FTSE -2.37%, SMI -3.24%.

The broader risk-off price action, detailed elsewhere, drives dovish BoE repricing at the open, before a pullback.

• 91bp of cuts are now priced through year-end, with ~30bp showing for next month’s meeting. Pricing covering '25 meetings is 3-9bp more dovish vs. yesterday's close.
• SONIA futures +12.5 to -13.0, curve twist steepens. October ’24 highs were respected or went unchallenged across the strip.
• While some former MPC members have called for a 50bp cut/inter-meeting action, we don’t believe such moves are justified at present (and note the calls have come from former doves).
• Still, the market prices a ~20% chance of more than 25bp of easing being delivered come the end of the May meeting.
• MPC member Lombardelli didn’t provide much in the way of market-pertinent commentary.
• A reminder that BoE’s Breeden will speak at an MNI Connect event on Thursday, covering “UK economic and financial stability prospects."