GILTS: Opening calls
Dec-12 07:57
Gilt calls, 94.97/94.99.
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EQUITIES: EU Cash opening calls
Nov-12 07:56
Estox 50: -0.86%, Dax: -0.88%, CAC: -1.21%, FTSE -0.29%, SMI -0.67%.
STIR: Modest Hawkish BoE Repricing, Labour Data Shouldn’t Shift BoE Views
Nov-12 07:51
GBP STIRs a touch more hawkish vs. yesterday’s settlement levels.
- Recent, contained weakness in core global FI markets noted.
- Local labour market data showed slightly stronger wages but slightly softer quantity data, with our macro team suggesting that the readings shouldn't really change any of the MPC voting intentions.
- BoE-dated OIS last flat to 3bp less dovish, showing 3.5bp of cuts for December, 29bp of cuts through March, 48bp of cuts through June and 64.5bp of cuts through December ’25.
- SONIA futures little changed to -3.0.
- Spillover from the U.S. and adjustment to the fiscal decisions made in the Budget have fueled meaningful hawkish repricing over the last couple of weeks.
- That is despite BoE Governor Bailey attempting to play down the impact of the Budget when it comes to monetary policy.
- Comments from BoE chief economist Pill due this morning (09:00 London).
- As a former hawkish dissenter his comments will be closely eyed. Markets will look for any comments covering how he personally views the balance of risks between the BoE’s three “cases” (case 1 more dovish, 3 more hawkish, 2 the central case).
- His comments on Friday were broadly in line with case 2, but he was representing the wider MPC at that appearance, so it is unclear whether this is in line with his personal view
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Dec-24 | 4.664 | -3.6 |
Feb-25 | 4.485 | -21.5 |
Mar-25 | 4.408 | -29.2 |
May-25 | 4.263 | -43.7 |
Jun-25 | 4.220 | -48.0 |
Aug-25 | 4.147 | -55.4 |
Sep-25 | 4.114 | -58.6 |
Nov-25 | 4.070 | -63.0 |
Dec-25 | 4.056 | -64.4 |
USD: Gold breaks below $2600.00
Nov-12 07:43
- The Dollar is king, and the continuous bid has now pushed Gold through the October low and below $2600.00, first time since 20th September.
- Next support in Gold is seen at $2584.9 - Low Sep 20.
- Cable is making an attempt at the 1.2800 level, with broader base selling now emerging against the Pound, at a new low versus the EUR and JPY.
