OIL: OPEC Share of India Crude Imports Rises as Russia Falls

The German government today is enacting a commission to come up with suggestions for additional pension reform. Scope is in particular to put under review the retirement age, private pension options, and the question of whether other groups, such as civil servants, should contribute to the pay-as-you-go statutory scheme according to media reports.

• Results are to be published by mid-2026.
• This follows German labour minister Bas (SPD) floating earlier this month to change the pension system to map the pension age to the number of contribution years.
• Also comes after a first pension reform package, keeping the "average  pension level" at 48% of average income through 2031 (which will cost E122bln  through 2040), passed in Bundestag earlier this month. This first package had been on  the edge of failure after protest from the "CDU young group" on affordability concerns.
• The enactment of "commissions" to come up with solutions on a wide range of issues (commissions are also in place for proposing debt brake and bureaucracy reduction reforms) can also be seen as a cautious signal in terms of the capacity to act of the the CDU/CSU/SPD coalition by itself.

As expected (FRANCE: National Assembly Set To Pass Social Security Budget This Evening), the National Assembly passed the Social Security Finance Bill (PLFSS) on the evening of 16 Dec, signing off on one half of the budget duo that (ostensibly) needs to be passed by year's end.  In the event, the bill passed by almost the exact same margin as it did on its second reading before heading to the Senate, with 247 deputies voting in favour, 232 against, and 90 abstaining. 

• Most lawmakers from the centrist Renaissance and MoDem, the centre-left Socialist Party, and LIOT group voted in favour. The far-left La France Insoumise and Democratic and Republican Left, and the far-right Rassemblement National and Union of the Right for the Republic voted against the bill. Crucially, most of the environmentalist Ecologists, conservative Les Republicains, and centre-right Horizons abstained.
• Posting on X following the bill's passage, PM Sebastien Lecornu said, "From now on, the Government is mobilizing for the adoption of the State budget. This will be even more difficult: the vote on a budget is more political, and the positions of the National Assembly and the Senate are - at this stage - very far apart. [...] We want to meet the target of a deficit kept below 5%, that is, with real savings and therefore cuts in spending."
• The most likely outcome at this point remains the passage of a special law that carries over 2025 spending into 2026 by twelfths to allow for further talks in parliament on passing the state budget. 

Tsy futures follow EGBs away from highs, with gilts continuing to outperform in the wake of the soft UK CPI data. Screen selling in TU futures noted in recent trade, with ~4.1K given at 104-11.25/125 across a couple of clips. Cumulative DV01 of the 2 clips ~$163K.