OPEC+: OPEC+ Discussing Pausing Hikes From Oct

SX7E (19th Sep) 190/180ps, bought for 2 in 8k.

Couple of Gilt Block trades, suggested buyers:

• G U5 1.64k bought for 92.47.
• G U5 ~1.29k bought for 92.48.

• Italian industrial production was stronger-than-expected at 1.0% M/M in April (vs -0.1% cons, 0.0% prior), contrasting with weaker-than-expected reads from Germany, Spain and France last week. As such, there doesn’t seem to be an immediate negative impact from US Liberation Day at play. Indeed, Italian production appears to be entering a shallow, but visible, recovery.
• However, surveys paint a more subdued outlook ahead. Although the manufacturing PMI was close to neutral territory in May (49.2), ISTAT’s industrial survey remains below the 2010-2019 average.
• On a WDA Y/Y basis, growth of 0.3% was the first positive reading since January 2023. 3m/3m growth was also positive at 0.4% (vs 0.6% in March, -0.6% in February).
• In May, there was positive sequential production growth in all major sub-sectors other than energy. However, 3m/3m growth in consumer and capital goods remains negative.
• Italian industry is sensitive to the outcome of EU-US tariff negotiations. In its latest forecast update, ISTAT noted that although trade “tensions are expected to ease gradually in the second half of 2025, they will still hurt the economic cycle, with more pronounced effects on investment and foreign trade, and to a lesser extent on household consumption”. The agency's forecast for 2025 growth was revised down to 0.6% from 0.8% in December