OIL: OPEC+ Discussing 411kbd August Hike: Bloomberg
Jul-03 17:20
OPEC+ is discussing another 411,000 barrel-a-day production increase for August, Bloomberg sources report on Thursday.
- This follows similar reporting from Bloomberg and Reuters sources in recent days. Bit of an upward movement in crude after some sources suggestions in the Reuters piece that bigger hikes were also being discussed which this report would counter.
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EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play
Jun-03 17:00
- RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Mar 27 price swing
- RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
- RES 2: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.1455 High Jun 03
- PRICE: 1.1381 @ 16:14 BST Jun 3
- SUP 1: 1.1307 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.1182/1.1065 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
- SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10
A bullish theme in EURUSD remains intact and Monday’s gains and fresh short-term cycle high reinforce current conditions. The breach of 1.1419, the May 26 high, confirms a resumption of the trend and opens 1.1573, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger. Support to watch lies at 1.1182, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 1.1065, the May 12 low.
EUROPEAN FISCAL: Italy Central Govt Deficit Improves In May
Jun-03 16:57
- The Italian finance ministry reports a preliminary central government budget deficit of E11.4bn in May for an improvement from the E13bn in May 2024 and E16.2bn in May 2023.
- The cumulative deficit of E80.4bn over the five first months of the year tracks a little inside the E82bn seen in the first five months of both of 2024 and 2023.
- That improvement looks a little better still in % GDP terms considering nominal GDP growth of 2.1% Y/Y in 1Q25.
- Italy displayed impressive fiscal consolidation through last year, with a deficit of 3.4% GDP vs the 3.8% GDP government forecast, supporting more positive ratings action.
- The European Commission projects the Italian deficit at 3.3% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026 to just about return to sub-3% GDP deficits per Maastricht rules, while it sees Italian growth below 1% through 2026.
OPTIONS: Selling Out Euribor Call Condor Pre-ECB
Jun-03 16:52
Tuesday's Europe rates/bonds options flow included:
- ERM5 97.875/98.00/98.125/98.25 call condor, sold out at 11 in 10k
- SFIQ5 95.95/95.90/95.80p ladder, bought for 1.25 in 5k
- SFIU5 95.85/95.75/95.65p fly, bought for 1.25 in 2k
- SFIZ5 96.30/96.50 call spread vs 2NZ5 96.60/96.80 call spread, paper pays 1.75 for 4k
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