SWEDEN: Only A Partial Recovery In June Retail Sales

Swedish retail sales were notably weak in May, falling 4.8% M/M SWDA after a 6 tenth upwardly revised 1.5% prior. Although not mentioned in the press release, we suspect some seasonal/calendar adjustment quirks may have been at play, with the Ascension Day holiday falling very late in the month in 2025 due to the late Easter. However, it was still the weakest May SWDA print in at least 10 years, and will support the dovish stance set out by the Riksbank Executive Board at its June decision.

• 3m/3m retail sales growth turned negative for the first time in a year, at -0.6% (0.8% prior).
• All major sub-components fell on a sequential basis, most notably in clothing (-6.9% M/M SWDA).
• Although there may be some sequential payback next month, the broader outlook for retail trade appears bleak. The retail sentiment indicator fell sharply to 98.1 in Jue, from 103.3 in May.

• RES 4: $82.62 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.43 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $71.20/78.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23  
• PRICE: $65.21 @ 07:17 BST Jun 30 
• SUP 1: $64.58/00 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 
• SUP 2: $58.87 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.81 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.13 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from last Monday’s high. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $64.58. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3339.6/3451.3 - 20-day EMA / High Jun 16          
• PRICE: $3290.9 @ 07:24 BST Jun 30 
• SUP 1: $3245.5 - Low May 29
• SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
• SUP 4: $3085.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 22 bull leg  

Gold traded lower Friday as the yellow metal extended the pullback from $3451.3, the Jun 16 high Two key S/T levels have been breached; $3290.3, the 50-day EMA, and 3300.3, a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low. A clear break of both support points would signal scope for a deeper correction - this would expose $3245.5. A reversal higher would refocus attention $3451.3, Jun 16 high. Initial resistance is at $3339.6, the 20-day EMA.